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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: golfnut777 who wrote (23289)	5/16/2001 6:21:00 PM
From: velociraptor_	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 37746

I understand what you are asking and I don't mind. First, I think the one thing to keep n mind is that as a trader, you have to evolve your thoughts. Just because you have one thought now, doesn't mean you can't change it a few weeks from now as the data changes. There's nothing wrong with that, so yes, I am backing away from some statements made 1-2 months ago, as evidence now points to a possible continued advance and puts any new low in the shadows for now. On support and resistance lines, there are 2 things to remember. They have to be used in succession, so between say 2120 and 1620, if there are several other points, each one in turn will be a pause point and a possible eversal point. I think in my web site analysis I have stressed that on the Downside a break of 2120 should lead to a test of 2060, then 2000, then 1930. Doesn't mean it will make it all the way to 1930, but rather each of those points is important on the way. The other point to remember is that if a level is surpassed, then we move to the next one to watch, however, a move back through the first negates the outlook. Example....a move down thorugh 2120 should lead to a test of 2060. We got it. However, the index did not really break through 2060 and instead moved back up through 2120. This is a bullish sign and now 2060 becomes less important. On the turn daet, It generally signals a change in direction, though the excta change up or down, depends on the trend as we approach. Also, the extent of the change is not specified, so while a turn may occur, it may change the trend for 1 day or it may change it for several months. Also, turn dates may occasionally turn out to be a dud. It's really just an added piece of information to possible trade on, just like everything else. Finally, concerning news related events, I am lost. We have had both good and bad, and lately the market has chosen either to ignore the bad, or to twist the perception and rally on a perceived good. Yesterday and today was a good example. A rate cut yesterday was everything the bulls wanted and they rallied initially on the news despite the poor economic outlook as if the outlook doesn't matter because they got the rate cut. Today, the market rallied on the exact opposite. CPI suggests an improved outlook which means no more rate cuts, so now the latter was ignored. How the market chooses to react to news I cannot predict, but as of now, short term chart patterns are suggesting a breakout and more up. Yes, recently some TA has been thrown out the window, particularly in my case stochastics because it seems that lately they have become overextended quite often or have given mixed signals. But you are correct....no method of analysis is infalliable. I hope this helps.