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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (40258)	5/16/2001 7:37:54 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

Pravin: "Checks at computer retailers indicate that the number of Athlon based systems on the shelves is drying up. How do you interpret this, and how do you think AMD unit shipments will be impacted this quarter? Also, every week there seems to be another article about someone lowering handset unit projections for this year. I see no flash rebound until next year. I think processor revenue for the rest of the year will have to greatly exceed expectations for AMD to make their Q3 and Q4 numbers. Comments?" 1. Q2 is traditionally the lull quarter before the Q3 and Q4 pickup...Mr. Sanders' Q2 guidance suggested some weakening in flash and possibly processors followed by strengthening in H2, but he has since indicated (with the Athlon 4 unveiling) feeling better about Q2 than he did a month ago...Concerning perceptions about Athlons drying up on shelves, could be any number of reasons, not the least of which is misperception, but allocation problems might also be a cause, given recent excess demand for Dresden product has probably heightened as a concern with the Athlon 4 production commitments. As long as the Athlon offers a fairly healthy price/performance benefit to the consumer, it will continue to gain market share as it has now evolved from the trendsetting portion of the market curve to the accelerating portion... 2. Computer obsolescence is about 3 years and the last surge occurred in the year prior to the y2000 scare...Corporate budgets are just now beginning to thaw and, my guess, is that we are just now entering the next upcycle for PC's...I suspect that handset unit volume is a function of the wealth factor among other determinants and as the wealth factor (i.e markets) improve so too will the outlook for handsets...Today marked the beginning of improvement in the markets, imo...Mr. Sanders was looking for flash to firm in H2 of this year...Any economic uptick will improve flash outlook fairly rapidly... 3. Concerning AMD's Q2, that's a hard call with the Athlon 4 wildcard now in the mix, but I'd doubt anything under $0.30 eps and if a couple more OEM's jump on board for the Athlon 4, might even be good enough to beat Q1's $0.37...Q3 and Q4 will be back over $0.50 and Q4 may well be significantly above $0.50 assuming recovery is now in motion, as I do...Heck, I don't think we know yet the extent of the fundamentally major positive impact on eps that the palomino based products may bring, but my guess is that 95% of the analysts are currently wildly underestimating the eps contribution of palomino based products in H2 and beyond...AMD has survived very nicely in the consumer PC space over the past 2 years with its Athy...AMD is now positioned to gain market share in not 1, not 2 but 3 additional spaces with the imminent introduction of palomino based products in the mobile, server and workstation spaces...that is AMD's opportunity for market share gain is about to quadruple with entry into these 3 additional spaces...and that's not the end of the story as ASP's in these 3 additional spaces will dwarf the ASP's currently available in the PC space...AMD is poised for unprecedented revenue and eps growth with its upcoming palomino and hammer family of processors...and just imagine if we are currently at the bottom of the cycle and worldwide PC demand strengthens from this point forward...AMD and INTC combined, may not be able to fill the demand!!!

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (40258)	5/17/2001 12:32:58 AM
From: Petz	Respond to of 275872

Pravin, I visited a local CompUSA today. They have been one of the most pro-Intel shops in their ads. They had a huge number of laptops -- all P3's and Celerons. I asked the salesman about the Sony VAIA Duron 800 MHz laptop and he said it was the one at the end of the row without a description card. Apparently it had just come in. No other laptops at $1550 had a 14" XGA TFT screen. They also had an assortment of five Athlons including 1.3 GHz and about as many Pentium 4's. The Celerons and sub-GHz PIII's were together with a few Duron systems. The assortment of Athlons was definitely better than a couple months before. While I was there I managed to convince a couple looking for a system to do video editing using Premiere 6.0 that the Athlon 1.3 would be the most appropriate computer, and that he should also go for 512M of RAM, or at least 256M. Petz