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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (42729)	5/17/2001 11:51:21 AM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 54805

LindyBill, << As you say, Eric, Q is still a long way from where most of us think it will be in wireless, but I believe it will get there. >> I do too. My expectations (set back in 98) may be somewhat different than others, particularly as it relates to the respective eventual market shares of cdma2000 v. 3GSM, but QCOM does remain my largest hold, and like you, I plan no more trades till year end, when I will do some rebalancing. As for cdma2000 v. 3GSM, there are distinct advantages to QUALCOMM/SpinCo to see cdma2000 increasing market share, but it is important to remember that QUALCOMM/SpinCo benefits from 3GSM. The fly in the ointment is GPRS & EDGE, which, although they do not have many of the benefits of CDMA, are a reality that we need to get beyond, and that is why a (very) long term outlook is necessary for QUALCOMM. Eventually, the CDMA air interface will predominate .... then I guess we have to worry about ODFM or some such whatever ... but I am rather convinced that QUALCOMM is one of the better choices for this decade of the elusive "Telecosm". My long time projection is (and has been) that CDMA will achieve greater than 50% air interface penetration in 2007. I am sticking with that. Many feel that WCDMA (3GSM) is late. It is about where I anticipated it would be. GPRS IS late however. Some see this is a positive for CDMA. I do not. I see it as postponing the evolution of the GSM community to CDMA, for lack of experience with packet data services, data roaming, and working out interoperability issues. Offsetting this, is the fact that 1xRTT has gained and unanticipated if not huge time to market advantage over GPRS, and I am hopeful that QUALCOMM can use this to their advantage. Good to see that you are checking back in regularly, and I hope all goes well. - Eric -