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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (42730)	5/17/2001 12:16:05 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 54805

uf, << Compelling discontinuous innovations are the basis for the Gorilla Game, and we've seen it work in other sectors. Wireless is just slower, since there are so many political and regulatory issues. >> I agree with that statement ... ... in its entirety. I would add that, so far as I can tell, there is no large industry sector where committee based architecture and standards are so ingrained into the sector, and so dominant. In the case of QUALCOMM virtually every member of their value chain (or at least the infra and terminal manufacturers that comprise the chain) are participants in THE 3G committee (3GPP Global Initiative). Several (Koreans & Japanese) are recent additions to THE 3G committee. In the interim, THE OTHER committee (3GPP2) is complicating QUALCOMM's life and making technology evolution of the cdma2000 family somewhat more challenging for them. When Moore releases the Revised, Revised Manual, I would like to see him address this as a case study using QUALCOMM as the example. - Eric -

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (42730)	5/17/2001 8:15:14 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 54805

re: The Wild and Wacky Wireless Sector Tero Kuittinen has just published a 2 part commentarry on Wireless Sector on the TheStreet.com. My good friend Cha2 calls Tero "predictable". I myself call Tero a great chronicler of wireless evwnts - particularly on the handset side - a predictor - not always correct but closer than anyone I know. He also turns a pretty mean phrase. This two parter is, IMO, worth a read: >> Hangups and Hangovers: Hold Up the Wireless Party Part 1: thestreet.com Part 2: thestreet.com Another sage poster to the "Late and Great" Qualcomm S&P 500 thread wrote some time ago ... and carranza was kind enough to repost this year older which could qualify for a "Cool Post" today: To:carranza2 who wrote (8489) From: the_rich_janitor Monday, Apr 10, 2000 3:41 PM View Replies (3) \| Respond to of 13539 Carranza, some opinions on the 3G debate - It really doesn't take much to become schooled in the debate. I personally rarely participate because I find the misrepresentation of facts and opinions humorous on both sides of the track. The truth of the matter is that with regard to technology, press announcements and actuality are two different things. About eight months ago when a few unnamed QCOM competitors announced final development of their CDMA chipset, I also wrote a press announcement announcing the final development stages of 'Janitor's Energizer'. The product was to revolutionize the travel industry, yet not one person on this thread sent me money. Needless to say, my schedule has slipped. It is very simple to understand all the debate: 1) Both flavors of CDMA will be an eventual winner meaning that QCOM will win no matter what. They already won last March. The issue is how big of a winner are they? This will depend on the ability of QCOM/ERICY to solicit and demonstrate the advantages of 1X/HDR in a timely manner. NO ONE on these threads can predict the success of any of these technologies 18 months from now. People seem to debate using the latest rollout dates provided by their respective vendor and distort words like 'commercial rollout' and 'field trials'. Fact is that no one can predict who will be there first and what if any impact for upgradability to even higher data rates will appear. 2) Knowing what I know and seeing what I see (not from these boards, but from the field), my current educated 'opinion' is that there will be a delay in Japan's scheduled WCDMA deployment and that the major problem will come with upgradibility. Is that a fact? No. Am I sure? No. Do I only own QCOM stock? No. 3) In my years in the wireless technology industry, I have never known any project to be rolled out in the timeframes announced. I have always heard the ramblings of those who attend standards meeting and spend a lifetime discussing this and that, and then I have been in the labs where the real stress and pressure takes place. All I can say is that 3G = software! I have seen distortion of the truth hidden behind press announcements and the reality is that for the next 12 months, 3G wireless technology will be more of a political game than a technical one. Battles lines are still being drawn. The real fun doesn't start until early 2001 when the shots start getting fired. all jmo of course, - TRJ One last thing. Just because I choose not to partcipate much in the majority of 3G debate doesn't mean that I don't wish I could. I do. Unfortunately, I must always be careful what I say and I don't like using the arguement "Because I know" without being able to back it up. << - Eric -