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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jdaasoc who wrote (73148)	5/17/2001 2:56:58 PM
From: ALTERN8	Respond to of 93625

Ditto

To: Jdaasoc who wrote (73148)	5/17/2001 3:18:27 PM
From: GVTucker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

You've hit upon the main reason why most short sellers make pretty consistent money over the long haul. The bad short sellers go broke rather quickly, and there is no long haul.

To: Jdaasoc who wrote (73148)	5/17/2001 3:43:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

...But the concept of being an uninformed short is truly a scary one indeed. That depends on how uninformed one is and what he is uninformed about. It may be counter intuitive, but sometimes the more I know about a company the worse my positions get. My lack of "information" gives me a healthy dose of skepticism and prompts me to close a position when it makes unexpected moves. This is specially true when you are talking about technical (in the engineering sense of the word) information. Given a choice between knowing every signal timing issue and technical spec of competing DRAM standards, and knowing how to read the market, I take the latter any day. Still, it is useful to understand the technology (and more importantly the industry). So here is my limited understanding of the issues and everyone is welcome to poke holes at it or add to it. 1) Rambus has the full protection of the law wrt RDRAM production. 2) RDRAM scales better than DDR 3) RDRAM has (can have?) better data transfer rate than DDR 4) RDRAM is slower to access than DDR 5) RDRAM costs substantially more than DDR. There is speculation that it will cost within 10-20% of DDR, but that remains to be seen. 6) Many of the DRAM makers hate Rambus and will not support them unless they have to. 7) RDRAM sales will be mostly dependent on P4 sales. 8) The need for P4 and better computers is in debate due to the lack of "killer apps". 9) By the end of the year, if Windows XP sales really take off, there may be renewed interest in purchase of new PCs. 10) Rambus stands to lose its royalties from SDRAM and DDR that make up for 2/3 of its revenue. So what am I missing? Again, my layman idea about RDRAM is that it is slower than DDR but has better transfer rates. And that it costs a lot more than DDR. My question is as much a business question as a technology one: over the next 18 months, what is the justification for choosing RDRAM over DDR given their relative pricing? thanks for your input, ST