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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Broken_Clock who wrote (69361)	5/17/2001 9:47:07 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116753

No-one who buys CSCO or NEM is looking at last quarter -- I didn't buy NEM based on the prior quarter's performance and CSCO's most ardent bulls can't be buying CSCO based on last quarter. I think my assesment and other's assesments of NEM, largely based on what will happen to earnings and cash flows going forward turns largely on the price of gold. I could point to a whole series of arguments as to why I think the POG will rise -- you know them ... I have invested based on reasonable expectations -- not just a reasonable expectation about the POG, but how NEM's earnings will be affected in the POG does in fact rise ... I could be wrong, but there is a set of well thought out reasons for the purchase. CSCO cannot attain anywhere near a reasonable valuation in the near term were things to turnaround in the 2nd half. I can point to many reasons why I think this is not possible. Bulls point to things like -- I think the bottom is in -- there are signs of a turnaround -- Chambers thinks he saw a bottom. There is no real foundation for them to think that the price paid now will be cheap on some sort of discounted cash flow type evaluation -- all they have is a hope for "re-inflation of very high valuations" -- no reason why the growth should resume next month, next year next quarter. I can point to several reasons why it may not I said all that to say this -- having future expectations and buying a stock is not what I would call speculating. It is a loaded word -- I think of speculating as taking a risk on a hunch -- undue risk.