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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dale_laroy who wrote (135407)	5/18/2001 11:47:41 AM
From: fingolfen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

SVGI claims at least 3-4 months delay. Switching over to PSM will not be easy or quick. It will probably take 5 months to validate the process, plus another 3 months to get volume production. This would not make sense with only a 3-4 month delay on 193nm lithography. Hummmm... I can see where you could draw those conclusions, but the statements from Chou didn't imply anything like that... Looking back at Intel's 0.13 micron process announcement: intel.com There is no mention of what type of lithography is used, but there is the following statement: ". Intel will present details of this process technology at the International Electron Devices Meeting (IEDM) in December 2000." Then moving to a story from December on EE Times: eetimes.com "The 70-nm gate length was created with 248-nm lithography tools. Bohr said Intel may implement a hard-phase-shift mask approach to creating the gate, but for now the gate and other critical layers use normal deep-ultraviolet lithography with etching enhancements to shorten the gate beyond the lithography's limits." That implies to me that Intel isn't using 193nm lithography for 0.13 micron at all at this point... and the entire SVGI issue is a red herring and has absolutely no bearing on Intel's 0.13 micron ramp. As the analyst's statement about delays to the 0.13 micron ramp contradict volumes of published information from Intel either, 1) The analyst is publishing inside information or 2) The analyst took the SVGI statement at face value, didn't do his homework, and made a blanket statement. I honestly think the second option is far more likely... Intel launched the 0.18-micron process with mobile P-II in June/July 1999, and will launch the 0.13-micron process in June/July 2001, this is two years. If you are correct about previous generations taking only 18 months, this represents a slowdown of six months versus the previous generation. The is reasonable therefore to anticipate that the move to 0.10-micron will take at least two years, possibly even 30 months. My guess is early Q4 2003 at the earliest for first volume shipment of 0.10-micron parts. I think we've been over this ground before... The mobile P2 launch was very small volume compared to the later coppermine launch. The product also only lived until coppermine was released which makes me believe it was a process debug chip that Intel decided to release into low volume after certification. According to Intel's press release, the 0.13 micron process was finished last year, which makes me think that the upcoming release will be on the volume of the initial coppermine release, not the P2 mobile... which means you're in a different part of the ramp, and have a 21-month cycle... I think you're stretching here without good factual basis...