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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CFA who wrote (9644)	5/18/2001 1:03:41 AM
From: tinkershaw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10309

How can you compare Chamber's prediction in the Fall of 2000 with Benn's statement this past March? Because Chambers has billions of dollars worth of data and analysts to help him predict where things are going. Benn has, well, himself. It is like saying that TinkerShaw screwed up because he mispredicted the way the economy would go, but yet ignoring the fact that the Federal Reserve, with all its expertise and power, did just the same. In addition Benn is not looking at Wind river with a 1 or 2 quarter perspective. He is looking forward to a period of years. Mr. Benn is one of the best sources of information and thought on Silicon Investor. He is human, and as such is prone to mistakes like the rest of us. But to single him out when billions of dollars worth of inside information at companies like Cisco and Oracle predicted things no better is lunacy. Tinker

To: CFA who wrote (9644)	5/18/2001 10:37:08 AM
From: mac	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10309

I think that the point egotard made can better be made without including Allen's name. Wind management has as much data as Chambers, in fact probably had a lot more, during the last conf call. Yet they stuck to their opinion that outsourcing would continue or even pick up. When I listened to that all I could say to myself was.."yes..but on the other hand". There was an obvious other hand to the story in that business could just fall off a cliff. Its easy for a buyer to cut the ASP in half just by not buying as many/or no prepaid royalties. One still gets the Tornado seat etc. One just postpones the royalty payments. Development doesn't cease. Yesterday's conf call was an admission that this is what played out. They all knew about this scenario at the previous conf call. They just chose to ignore/de-emphasize it. Some analysts went along with it and some, like Frost, I think, didn't. If you're in for the long haul on this, then this is a great chance for them to get to 20% margins quicker thru layoffs etc., or what TSD called in yesterdays conference call "separating employees away from a company" (thats another silly, but original I think, euphemism for firing) So the lean green fighting machine should emerge in 6-9 months. I'd like to pose a question to the board. With regard to a competitive analysis of WIND, what is likely to happen to all its competitors during this slowdown?