To: horsegirl48 who wrote (734 ) 5/18/2001 10:01:35 AM From: Venkie Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13815 As is always the case after a standout day, the main question through Thursday's session was whether Wednesday's gains would hold and, if so, could traders manage to tack on a little more with some follow-through. The day's uncertainty soon gave way with a little help from the "Es" (remember them?). BEAS, CIEN, and HWP showed impressive results with their earnings releases and served to lift the important technology sector. Leading indicators came in slightly stronger than expected and jobless claims fell for the second week in a row to provide economic support, but the day's most important story came near midday when the White House presented its energy strategy. The administration is calling for increases in coal output, oil and gas exploration, the expansion of nuclear-based power generation, tax credits for alternative energy users, and conservation measures. Mr. Bush's response to the country's energy mess is clearly the most ambitious in twenty years, and was quickly embraced by investors in energy, oil services and alternative power issues. Having created the sense that the country is finally dealing with a major part of the crumbling infrastructure that's been too long ignored, the president's remarks helped maintain the momentum that gained steam soon after Thursday's open. As traders, we appreciate the effort, as it's much easier to make a profit in a market environment that doesn't change direction every few minutes. Thursday's session didn't continue unabated in a single direction, of course, but there was a far more positive tone than has been present in recent months. Increasingly confident comments from a number of companies and even a few indications the visibility is improving holds out promise that the worst is over and that it's time to start nibbling in earnest. Thursday's trading might well have been the best possible outcome following Wednesday's gains. While we certainly wouldn't want the markets to return all of yesterday's gains, neither would we want to see a second day of non-stop, rip-roaring advances! Why? Healthy markets don't go straight up, and instead need to build on slower, more gradual gains over a period of time. That provides the opportunity for support levels to become better established and decreases the risk that we're just building castles in the air. No one likes markets that display violent volatility except for "30-second" daytraders, and most of the players in the market aren't equipped for that. Unfortunately, some volatility can't be avoided, and we'll get some of that Friday, as options expiration will serve to generate some gyrations. It's been a pretty good week for the bulls and there will be no surprise in their taking some profits off the table on the way to unwinding positions before the weekend. Since the bulls have upside momentum but profit-taking will counter-balance additional gains, we tend to expect that Friday could easily be something of a "nothing" day, characterized by the inability to move substantially in either direction. If a strong move develops in either direction, by all means take advantage, but if such a move isn't obvious, it's important to recognize that the market isn't giving anything today and accept that. Forcing a trade when one isn't there is one of the key mistakes traders make, and a lack of patience can be quite expensive. There will be plenty of obvious opportunities in the near future, so don't waste time, energy, and money chasing what isn't there just yet.