To: TechMkt who wrote (11355 ) 5/18/2001 11:25:59 AM From: jopawa Respond to of 15615 James J. Cramer Goodbye to the Stress Index By James J. Cramer 5/18/01 11:14 AM ET URL: thestreet.com With this note, I am saying goodbye to the Stress Index. This was an index of telco companies that I thought might get bailed out if the Fed eased aggressively. Amazingly, the Fed eased much more aggressively than anyone thought, and it simply didn't matter. We benchmarked this Index at 100 the day the Fed changed bias (Dec. 19, 2000). We figured that XO Communications(XOXO:Nasdaq), 360networks(TSIX:Nasdaq), RCN(RCNC:Nasdaq), Teligent(TGNT:Nasdaq), Winstar and McLeodUSA (MCLD:Nasdaq) would be able to refinance with the Fed being so aggressive and get the money they needed. Now the Index is at $20. It dropped from $100 to $20 in less than six months. I figure the Index probably goes to zero, but the point has been made: The Fed's easy money is not bailing out those with bad business models. There is very little moral hazard to this series of eases. Stress Index MOST RECENT INDEX VALUE COMMENT 5/18/2001 8:38 21.75 16-May-01 21.07 15-May-01 20.69 New Low! 14-May-01 20.76 11-May-01 21.97 SIGNIFICANT DATES 15-May-01 20.69 Fed eases 50b; 4.0% (and New Low!) 18-Apr-01 27.74 Fed eases 50 basis; 4.5% Fed eases 50 basis; 4.5% 49.00 Fed eases 50 basis; 5.0% 31-Jan-01 125.29 Fed eases 50 basis; 5.5% 4-Jan-01 112.72 Fed surprise ease 50 basis; 6.0% 19-Dec-00 100.00 Fed changes Bias NOTE: WCII --> Delisted from NASDAQ April 26 TGNT --> Trading Halted CHART: Stress Index From Fed Bias Change Dec 19 '00 What would I do if I were still long the surviving companies? (I don't regard 360networks as a survivor, with its bonds at 6 cents on the dollar.) I have a suggestion. You obviously have massive losses. All of these companies have bonds that allow you to participate in anything good that happens at these companies. If you really believe in any of them, you want to sell the common stock and buy one of these pieces of paper. If you don't know how to do this, that's why you need a broker periodically. It is important to get that tax loss and, if you still believe, have a shot at participating if anything good that happens. I am telling you, in no uncertain terms, the common stock is the wrong vehicle to play in every one of these cases. The fixed income alternatives are much better. Make that change out of the loser stocks into the bonds, where at least you have a shot. You won't regret it. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column to jjcletters@thestreet.com. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------