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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (46962)	5/18/2001 12:37:49 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Sounds like a manic-depressive stockbroker's fantasy, although strange double tops have been known to happen.<g>

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (46962)	5/18/2001 12:41:47 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Cary, I think the NBR guest with the 3943 NASDAQ prediction was Ralph Block of Raymond James. I posted the transcript of the interview on this thread after it was (mis)quoted. While I'll admit to being influenced by the overwhelming bearish sentiment and outlook of the past few Quarters, I do believe that there's more reason for optimism than you seem to indicate in your posts. 1. Fed was still tightening toward the end of last year. We're probably just seeing the end of that impact on the economy. 2. Fed started easing on Jan 3rd. Within another month or 2, we should see the first signs of stimulation from that in forward looking economic indicators. With this week's release of the Leading Economic Indicators slightly positive, perhaps that change is already becoming apparent. Too soon to tell. Nevertheless, the 5 rate cuts should bring increasingly rosy outlooks as we approach yearend. I fully agree that it's difficult to take this imminent rosy outlook seriously as nearly every CEO and CFO in the sector refuses to provide guidance past the current Q; claims no visibility as the excuse; and continues to guide the current Q down sequentially. All the same, it didn't pay to fight the fed last year. I don't think fighting the fed will turn out to be a winning strategy this year. IMO, Ian.