You may want to consider what "vibration analysis" suggested to Robert Morrow when he spoke with Kangas about a year ago:
04/14/00: "Market Monitor": Robert Morrow, Editor, Institutional Advisory Service
PAUL KANGAS: Usually our Market Monitor segment is at the end of the program. But not tonight; there's been too much happening on Wall Street. So joining us now is Robert Morrow of the Robert Morrow Institutional Advisory Service based in Bradenton, Florida, and he also writes the monthly "High-Tech Growth Forecaster Letter". Welcome back, Bob.
ROBERT MORROW, EDITOR, INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORY SERVICE: Good to be back, Paul.
KANGAS: I can't think of anyone more appropriate to have on tonight than a high-tech stock forecaster. Is the worst over?
MORROW: I think it's very close to being over. I think this coming week we'll probably see the bottom if it's not already put in and I'm looking for considerably higher numbers later.
KANGAS: You didn't really forecast such a steep decline in the NASDAQ or the market in general, but you did forecast a kind of a setback.
MORROW: Right. I was looking for more or less a pothole in the S&P 500 and the Dow. On the NASDAQ, I think it's been entirely too volatile to have a long-term forecast. I did have a trend become weak on the 30th of March at about 4,500. And that's the only real indication I had of this downturn in the NASDAQ.
KANGAS: First of all, why did we fall so sharply in the high-tech area and why do you think a bottom is forming?
MORROW: Well, I think we were just terribly overextended on the NASDAQ. It had gone up by all measure much more than it should have relative to the S&P 500 and, of course, the Dow. And that's about when I stopped looking at it in terms of the long-term.
KANGAS: On your last visit with us as a Market Monitor August 20th, you gave us some wonderful suggestions to buy Gateway (GTW), Intel (INTC), Scientific-Atlanta (SFA), Viacom (VIA), Microsoft (MSFT), Electronic Data (EDS), Lucent Technologies (LU) and they're all way up, even after the selloff today. What do you do with those now?
MORROW: I think they can be held or even purchased with this downturn in the market. There's none of them that I would, you know, mark as a sell.
KANGAS: OK. And two others that weren't in the high-tech area, Safeway (SWY) and PepsiCo (PEP), PepsiCo is up but Safeway is down. What do we do with those?
MORROW: Well, they're in the value area and I think they can be held, certainly, and look for value to come in and perhaps upward prices on those, too.
KANGAS: If you think a bottom is nearing in the high-tech area especially, what's on your shopping list?
MORROW: OK, the stocks that I like in terms of their trend upward is Adobe Systems (ADBE), Applied Material (AMAT), Automatic Data Processing (AUD). I like Cyprus Semiconductor, IBM (IBM), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Computer Sciences (CSC). These are all, I think, in a strong uptrend.
KANGAS: Now, you say we're going to make a big comeback. Where do you see the Standard & Poor's and the Dow and the NASDAQ going, to new highs?
MORROW: Well, there will be a minor peak within this bull market and I think this bull market is going to extend on out to November 2001. So you've got --
KANGAS: You think the NASDAQ is still in a bull market after a 35 percent drop?
MORROW: Well, it's technically in a bear market. But in terms of the S&P, in July I'm looking for a peak in the S&P of about 1631. That would be about 12,190 for the Dow. The NASDAQ could recover to, say, 4,400 to 4,600.
KANGAS: A long way from 3321 today.
MORROW: Exactly.
KANGAS: All right. So you will take advantage of this terribly significant downturn to buy?
MORROW: Absolutely.
KANGAS: And I think we might listen to you because last August you predicted the Standard & Poor's would fall to 1240 by October and 1247 was the low in October.
MORROW: It was, indeed.
KANGAS: It was a magnificent call. And you expected the Dow to fall also and come back, and that did, too.
MORROW: Right.
KANGAS: So you say the bull market is really still intact?
MORROW: Right. And I think the bull market, as I say, will extend on out to November 2001. I'm looking for 1876 on the S&P, 14,777 on the Dow and perhaps a recovery in the NASDAQ to 5,200, maybe 5,800.
KANGAS: All right. And so the worst is over is basically what you're saying?
MORROW: Right. The bear market in the broad averages will occur after November 2001.
KANGAS: OK, so we've got some time yet.
MORROW: Exactly.
KANGAS: All right. Listen, Bob, we hope you're as much on the mark as you were last time in August of '99, and thanks very much for being with us.
MORROW: Thank you, Paul.
KANGAS: Some encouraging words.
MORROW: Thank you, Paul.
KANGAS: My guest Robert Morrow of the Robert Morrow Institutional Advisory Service.
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