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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: RetiredNow who wrote (53147)5/18/2001 8:47:16 PM
From: Stock Farmer  Respond to of 77399
 
LOL... I recall trying to make the same point about six months ago mm.

You and a few others were going on about the percentage growth CSCO was making in Optical against NT, and a host of us were saying that a hundred percent of jack squat is still jack squat. So I understand what you are saying. But it is tangential.

The point is that CSCO is valued as a PERCENT GROWTH, not ABSOLUTE growth. It is one thing to grow from 5 B$/year to 20 B$/year... quite another to grow from $20 B$/year to $80 B$ per year.

It is also a percent of the ENTIRE basket of markets, not just fast growing but relatively miniscule market segments A, B & C.

Finally, the point is that being #1 in the market does not guarantee percentage growth leadership. Which is the conventional hogwash.

So no, you must watch out for %age growth, not absolute growth. And total absolute growth must meet or exceed a set percent of total absolute market. Which means that most markets must grow faster than average to make up for the (presumably) larger, slower growing markets.



To: RetiredNow who wrote (53147)5/18/2001 9:41:18 PM
From: Victor Lazlo  Respond to of 77399
 
<<If Cisco hold 70% market share, then they get the lion's share of the growth of a market. End of story. >>

NO, not "end of story." MM, csco used to have more than 70% of the high end router mkt, but now Juniper is eating their lunch in that space. Juniper is getting the lion's share of the growth there.

You are not looking at things objectively, imo.

Victor