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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sully- who wrote (37054)	5/18/2001 11:45:14 PM
From: Morris Catt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

I pretty much agree with you that the VXN is at low levels but I think that it can go lower and stay low for weeks. I'm not convinced that the various volatility measures like VXN or VIX or QQV are as useful or valuable at tagging market tops. From my experience they have been better at tagging market lows. But I have not studied them much beyond the past few years so my conclusions may well be premature. A sentiment measure that I've been tracking also is the NASDAQ Bullish Percentage, see: stockcharts.com[w,a]dhlannmy[df][pa50!f] This measure is also at levels that in the immediate past have tagged corrections pretty well. We are I think in agreement that this is a point to be very alert for a correction. I have used the ARMS Indicator or the TRIN for the NYSE and the TRINQ for the NASDAQ in conjunction with the VIX and the VXN with some success. Currently the 10 day moving averages for the TRIN is 1.04 and the TRINQ is 1.28. The TRIN is thus about neutral and the TRINQ indicates a bit oversold. Then to complicate the issue a little one can bring in the TICKS figures and those on the NAZ & the NYSE are both nicely plus. Like you I have my eyes peeled looking for a correction but I'm currently very long and closely monitoring these indicators plus a few others. By the way todays IBD has a very good set of charts on the GENERAL MARKET & SECTORS page. With the VXN, TRINQ, Put/Call ratio, NAZ%Bullish, etc. somewhat in conflict the IBD page because my fallback until these indicators start showing a little more consistency. Regars, Mac