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Strategies & Market Trends : The Amateur Traders Corner -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul A who wrote (9584)	5/18/2001 10:37:40 PM
From: Tom Hua	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19633

At what point does one consider building a short? Hey Paul, re: FC stocks, although I own a bunch of them now, I'm already mapping a game plan to ride them down at some point in the future. Some early than the others. But boy, plenty of opportunities there. Check the Yahoo club when that time comes. I Love Aquila! Regards, Tom

To: Paul A who wrote (9584)	5/19/2001 8:59:15 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19633

Paul, CCMP at $70 is no more of a joke than AMAT at $55. Not only is CMP growing still, while cap ex is still declining, CMP is used as long as chips are crunched out, and even if the forecast of a decline of 20% in chip shipments this year (the worst I have seen so far, the consensus is around a decline of 16% or so). When looking "over" the valley to 2002 for justifying today's price, analysts have AMAT making $1.17 in 2002 and CCMP $2.40, considering that AMAT has greater and deeper cycles than CCMP, one can make an argument that "if" AMAT today is worth $55, then CCMP may be worth $90. That is actually taking into account discounting CCMP by 20% relative to AMAT, because AMAT is the leader and more diversified, and CCMP is a one pony show (albeit, the leader in that show). Good luck out there. Zeev