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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (604)	5/20/2001 6:30:45 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95761

OK Threaders - listen up!<gg> We have to make some prognostications for the semi-equip action this coming week. This past week the group was up 4 percent - what will it be this coming week.? A big piece of news is scheduled for Tuesday if SEMI holds to their schedule of releasing the BtB number for April as stated in: semi.org 8256a3700786a48!OpenDocument The announcement above gave the BtB for March as 0.64. This is a preliminary number, and as such, is given to revision in this months press release. The number could easily move by a couple of hundreths in either direction, but if it moves, I would guess that it would be downward. The 0.64 number is the third lowest monthly number posted since record keeping began on 1 Jan 1995. Only Aug and Sept in 1998, with numbers of 0.56 and 0.57 respectively, were lower as shown in: Message 15717898 The semi-equips ended last week on a positive note. Based on the BtB report due to be released on Tuesday, the semi-equips could move significantly in one direction or the other depending on the new number. Which way will it be? We need some gurus here with the right answers to point us in the right direction,<gg> Based on nothing more than a "gut feel" I will venture that the number will be slightly lower than the March number of 0.64, but not much lower. I don't think it will sink to the level of 0.56 or 0.57 set in 1998. I think we have to say that April was a "lost cause", but I do have high hopes for May. Or to put it another way, I think April will be slightly down from March, but May will start the upward trend in BtB. If I am wrong, and April does come through better than March, a higher number should give the semi-equips a good boost this coming week. Other comments and ideas are most welcome. Maybe we can gain a consensus opinion prior to the release of the number this week. Don