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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sharck who wrote (23891)	5/19/2001 8:42:00 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 37746

REGARDING MARKET DIRECTION. Looking at where we were and where we are one may get the feeling the up side is the only place to play since we sit at 2200 compared to 4200 a year ago. If you study the economy and what oil is telling us, perhaps we are closer to the YEAR TOP then the year bottom. The dow has numerous stocks hitting 52 week highs while many NASD stocks are close to the 2-3 fold increase( not all but far too many) When I look at my portfolio of approximatly 500 stocks I follow on a day to day basis, we are approaching what I consider a near term TOP. I had been saying 2350-2400 as the real top of the current CTR (counter trend rally) and I still see no change except to say we could roll over before getting there. If you look at all the indicators they are at the end of January levels. The same time when sentiment said we were going to above 3200-3800 level. In January I had 2950-3050 as a top but it rolled over at 2850. The problem with the Bull Argument is very simple, the curent signs in our weakening economy are showing NO SIGNS AT ALL that we hit the bottom. Unemployment is still rising, energy cost are still rising, In flation may not look like its back but by GOLDS move the lasr week I beg to differ with the bull. Perhaps the biggest issue is pick up in demand and spending by the telco's. In 95 they got this bull moving taking the nasd from 600-5000 in 5 years, the telco space will take at least another 1-2 years before they can increase spending to any noticable degree. The internet and the telco spending is GONE so what will take up that space of spending? So what has changed to make people think the bull is back. CNBC and the media learned how important GOOD news is to their bottom line. Business T.V. is about hopes and dreams. CNBC got killed from 10/00-4/01. I researched their viwership and it has picked up considerably since the beginning of April. CNBC was the bringer of bad news. They told the truth about a BEAR market and what was happening. In return folks turned them off. Now that since the market is going up, the new attitude is BULL IS BACK! Don't scare the retail investor. This will be the downfall of our last retail investor. I have seen no reason in the recent rally to pick up stocks for the long haul, as an investor. As a trader you could have made a lot of money if you bought at the bottom 4/4 and held, but most stocks ran for 5-10 days straight. Example is the storage group, and Fibre channel. EMLX, BRCD, QLGC all ran from like 12-14 to 35-38 in 5-10 days. Yes I was long all and sold 1/2 way to the top but nothing had changed to make me want to hold any long term. All should get very close to their bottoms again in the coming quarters. In conclusion I am shorting those stocks that ran the most the last week. They must be under 15 and losing at least 30 Mil per quarter. The wilshire is back to where it was in late January and NOTHING has changed!! I think the warnings will get louder as we get closer to June. as well the sound of the air that Greenspan put back in the bubble is starting to whistle out! As a short seller you must be willing to lose on the timing to win in the end! I lost last week, but all positions are in tact and ready to be doubled in a minute. The fall to the 1800 range will take many stocks down 30-40% in the first 2-3 weeks of the fall, but by the time you hear CNBC say we are heading to 1600 it will be TOO LATE to short! OSX is the next play on the shoprt side, planning on taking profits BEFORE API on tuesday!