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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: macavity who wrote (3875)5/21/2001 1:53:13 AM
From: Yorikke  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
macavity, You may want to review Doug Nolan's Credit Bubble commentaries on the Prudent Bear thread. He has done some interesting work on the Credit situation and often discusses the Government lending agencies. His work does not necessarily answer your specific question, but it deals with issues.

prudentbear.com



To: macavity who wrote (3875)5/21/2001 3:43:18 PM
From: John Pitera  Respond to of 33421
 
Is there anyway to look at this by looking at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares? I don't think that
looking at the shares of FNM and FRE is going to give you a comprehensive look as to if there is
a real estate bubble being undone.

I did find it interesting that Bill Meehan, or someone on Real Money.com was short FRE last week, the
chart does not look very good right now. I would agree with Yorikke's advice and check out some of
the Prudent Bear's analysis on this topic.

John



To: macavity who wrote (3875)5/22/2001 7:45:00 AM
From: J. P.  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
I think the only thing which will deflate the real estate market is higher interest rates. That cycle may be looming next year if the Fed overshoots here and has to begin a tightening phase. I think the reason real estate remained so strong throughtout the equity deflation is that interest rates kept dropping spurring refinancing and purchasing despite the emptier pocket books of the consumer.


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