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Strategies & Market Trends : The Amateur Traders Corner -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Hua who wrote (9590)	5/19/2001 9:47:47 AM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19633

Tom, what's your take on RMBS, please, both short term trader and longer term hold. tia. larry

To: Tom Hua who wrote (9590)	5/19/2001 10:03:45 AM
From: Paul A	Respond to of 19633

Hey- what did we all do, roll out of bed the same time this morning?? Wonderful weekend coming up for me.. Finally spending some time with my family up at my sisters house instead of on s/i with a beer in hand :) Rumors are flying at work about more cuts, so that always puts a damper on things. Funny you mentioned Rambus Tom :) :) I have watched the price literally freefall over the last few months and the demand just wasnt what I was expecting.. A sales dud..

To: Tom Hua who wrote (9590)	5/19/2001 10:29:16 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 19633

No argument that a one product company with possible patent threats should not be accorded the same PE as a leader in the field. (To reflect that difference I suggested a differential of 20% and did not apply a higher current growth rate to CCMP growth). As for the RMBS comparison, it seems to me that CCMP is standing in the equivalent of IFX shoes in this controversy, but trials are unpredictable, so I will agree completely with that risk assessment. The big advantage of CCMP relative to AMAT, however, is that, short term, Capex is falling from a cliff (most recent booking rates are at less than 50% of the peak rates), while the number of wafers processed is declining by not much more than 10% (YOY), and furthermore, the number of steps moving to CMP pr average wafer is still increasing. If indeed CCMP succeeds in its patent fight with Rodel (and I have no idea if they will or not), then the increase in chip shipments, increase in copper (where CCMP presence is only "starting"), as well as diversification into memory media (magnetic at least), could assure that CCMP's growth does not peak for another year or two. It is not a stock to get "married" to, but like RMBS, a lot of money can be made before that peak in growth (and the eventual demise after that growth ceases) is recognized by the market. Zeev