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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike M who wrote (37063)	5/19/2001 12:02:40 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Mike, difficult to say about "what happens" if 2050 is breached on a closing basis. My first response (from where my indicators are now) is that we are going to at least breach the yearly low on the Naz (if that breach were to occur) at the 1629 or so, and go lower than 1600. For that to happen, however (and it will be according to that scenario in the time frame of August or so), I'll have to see the 2050 breach on low volume and continuation of low volume (like under 1.5 B for days on the Naz). If we get increasing volume on the breach and get a string of very negative tics (and few other parameters, like VIX going above 40 and VXN above 80), then 1850 or there about might hold. How we decline (if we decline) will be very important IMTO. Right now, that scenario has less than 25% probability, so why scare everyone? (g). I am sure that this paragraph is going to be plastered all over without the last sentence, but, hey, c'est la vie