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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (23901)	5/19/2001 1:21:37 PM
From: DebtBomb	Respond to of 37746

Dlphc, drops in consumer spending and home sales lag. These could be the next shoes to fall, in fact I'm pretty sure they will be. I have no idea about the timing of it though. Greenspan knows this, and is cutting rates fast. I'm not confident he can stop it from happening. Hays may be correct about a run from July through Sept., then crasho. If he is correct, more good things would have to fall into place in the short term and I can't imagine what they would be. I seriously doubt that Peter Pan can take us up all the way through Sept. without some good news. Hays may be right about another small bubble over the summer, but news is getting worse, IMO.

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (23901)	5/19/2001 1:25:25 PM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Respond to of 37746

I also follow Hayes and he missed the rally in 98, he missed the rally in 99, and he missed the rally in early 2000. Listen closely to his ARMS index, and it never said 11-12K in DOW in 1.5 months! Don also said that the rally would be a COUNTER TREND rally. He still feels risk could be shifted rather quickly to the down side. Also Hayes did not call for NASD to participate. Hayes leaves too much to be desired. Why couldn't the current rally in NASD from 1600-2200 be that rally he predicted, and the DOW going from 9000-11300 in 1.25 months could be the end of that rally? My argument is simple, VALUATIONS and FUNDAMENTALS are not present in the current market, its a bet that the second half will be fine just because Greenspan lowered rates by 5X, I don't buy that argument!! There is a lot more going on and lower rates will not be the trick this time. Bottom line INTERNET venture, and TELEcom networking took us to 5000 and 11000 in the DOW, going forward what will be the catalyst? Inflation ?, cost of energy? Power? I believe the current bear market is SECULAR! Watch closely what happens to Europe over the summer. Valuations do count and until we get signs that companies are GROWING not shrinking the nasd and the dow will not proceed to make gains. The current enviroment tells me we just went through a Greenspan PUMP!! As the weeks go by watch how many ANAL_YST turn and say DOW and NASD must retest lows! Good luck!!

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (23901)	5/19/2001 1:36:34 PM
From: StormRider	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 37746

change of heart since last monday? here's what you said then (post #22808) "Electric: Here's how I see it. 1. Fed lowers rates by .50 points. 2. Market has a brief reflex rally, but nothing overly dramatic. 3. Next 3-4 weeks grind along with bias to the downside, being exacerbated and picking up pace as we get into the heart of the Q2 earnings warning season. 4. NASDAQ will retest its April 4 low, but will NOT hit 1640. Rather, I think this "retest" will bounce at a higher level (1750-1800). 5. This will then lead into a sharp, brief (3-5 month) bull market, which takes NASDAQ to 2600-2800 range. " i happen to agree with what you said last monday and i'm sticking to that belief.