Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Transmeta (TMTA)-The Monster That Could Slay Intel -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pass pass who wrote (392)	5/19/2001 6:21:11 PM
From: Bill Fischofer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 421

Yes, TMTA has novel technology which holds great promise. The problem is that it's too early to tell how that promise will unfold. The strategic edge that TMTA should have should evidence itself in dramatic speed-to-market advantages compared to their hardwired competitors. TMTA should be able to turn out a new hardware generation every twelve months with a major performance "kicker" every six months due to tweaks in the software. If they can achieve this type of escape velocity they'll leave everyone else in the dust within five years and effectively own the microprocessor market within a decade. That's the plan. The problem is that to date there simply aren't enough data points to determine whether TMTA can track to that plan. The first "calibration" will occur sometime later this year when the TM5800 ships, but until then we don't know. In fact, we probably won't know for at least another two years whether TMTA can achieve its plan. In the meantime neither INTC nor AMD are exactly sitting still and TMTA's manufacturing partner, IBM, seems reluctant to offer Crusoe-based products of its own. Given these questions and the large premium TMTA already sports, my guess is that today's price already reflects a lot of potential. To achieve significant stock appreciation from here, TMTA needs to show significant revenue growth as well as a clear path to profitability so that investors can have confidence that TMTA has the financial strength to "go the distance".