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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pcstel who wrote (99502)	5/19/2001 8:35:32 PM
From: engineer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Let me ask you this....if I use a cable and plug my $250 phone into a Cray 1 computer for access, do you get royalties on the $250 phone or the $16M computer? I think you can answer the rethorical question that you ask and it becomes pretty obvious. Why would you think that they would get royalties off of every laptop sold if the peice being enabled is only $300? Again, the investors got carried away in projections that went way over what was real. You said it yourself that you expected each laptop sold to carry a 5% royalty. the entire margin load on a standard laptop is not more than about 7-8%, so this would be out of line with the entire industry. but you admit that YOUR projections caused you to expect the stock to soar because somehow they had figured out how to change the basic margin available without changing hte price or performance paradigm. Yes, I think alot of unfoudned, uninformed people got into the stock at a time when hysteria was abound and helped drive the price up along with fund managers who took advantage of it on your expense to make the stock fly high until the DAY AFTER New Years, when they all sold off in the game and left all you uninformed speculators hanging. Too bad the SEC never investiages the fund traders like they do the 17 year olds around here.... Here is the answer and it applies to almost every business around. Grow the pie, not the price of the pie. the bigger the market at even lower margins is better than a smaller market with total control and high margins. many things happen with a bigger market which make your life easier and better. I do not see this as any different. go find 100 other things that you can put the product into and get whaatever you can get, be it royaites on a chip, a card, or a phone, or even some software on top of that phone. but go find ever more applicaitons and devices which can use this and grow the market size. I hope this simple message sinks in finally and you focus on how the real world thinks and not on your own expectations. Yes, the market got carried away with itself on growing the price of Q stock to the $200 price. Even Dr J was surprised wiht it. I think it set up alot of negative feelings about what it should be and could have been that did not need to get setup. If it had stayed at $125 across the whole bubble period and grown only to $130 across all last year, everyone would still be hot on the stock. But having it go up to $200 on pure speculation and end of year manipulation by the funds to show a great quarter, and then have it crash back to $120 the end of Jan setup alot of feelings about the stock which then propelled it downward. the sad thing is nothing ever really changed in teh story during the whole time. No change in projected earnings, no change in the china roll out, no change in the chipset orders, nothing which changed the overall business aspects. What changed is the buyer sentiment on the stock itself, setup by overblown expectations in teh market. later.

To: pcstel who wrote (99502)	5/23/2001 2:31:37 PM
From: cfoe	Respond to of 152472

But, when I read a statement that said "We are currently talking to Laptop Manufactures about inclusion of QCOM technology into their products.. I NEVER would have concluded that they were talking about a $150 Modem Card. Well I remember conversations on this thread that discussed this exact point and the general sense was that there would be either a normal royalty on a small part of the laptop (the modem) or a very low royalty on the whole thing. This was confirmed by subsequent comments made by IJ about having to re-look at the method of determining the royalty for high-ticket items. Although some on this thread did express "hope" of a normal royalty on the cost of the entire laptop, I don't think anyone seriously thought that would happen.