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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (3756)	5/19/2001 6:26:49 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Did you take a look at the BIS website I linked? Most of their recent announcements are about controlling risks from highly leveraged institutions and derivatives. >>8 May 2001 New publication and Press Release: Progress made in addressing concerns raised by Highly Leveraged Institutions 18 May 2001 BIS Review - Speeches and articles by senior central bankers: William J McDonough: The role of financial stability; David Dodge: Update on economic and monetary developments in Canada; Süreyya Serdengeçti: Recent developments in the Turkish economy 17 May 2001 New Basel Committee publication: Essential elements of a statement of cooperation between banking supervisors 16 May 2001 New publication and Press Release: Regular OTC Derivatives Market Statistics 16 May 2001 BIS Review - Speeches and articles by senior central bankers: Nout Wellink: Prospects for a unified Europe; David Klein: Israel's policy of integration in the global economy: the difficulties; Christian Noyer: Presentation of the European Central Bank's Annual Report for 2000; Lars Nyberg: Economic slowdown - but how soon and how severe? 7 May 2001 New publication and Press Release: The BIS consolidated international banking statistics 4 May 2001 New Basel Committee publication: Risk Management Principles for Electronic Banking 4 May 2001 Basel Committee: Quantitative Impact Study (QIS) - Operational Risk Data 2 May 2001 Basel Committee: Quantitative Impact Study (QIS) - FAQ and Rating Scales Comparison 30 April 2001 New press release: Communiqué of the Ministers and Governors of the Group of Ten 26 April 2001 New publication and press release: Final Report of the Multidisciplinary Working Group on Enhanced Disclosure 25 April 2001 CGFS new publication and press release: A survey of stress tests and current practice at major financial institutions 25 April 2001 New Basel Committee publication: Conducting a Supervisory Self-Assessment - Practical Application 23 April 2001 New Basel Committee publication: Public disclosures by banks: results of the 1999 disclosure survey 23 April 2001 Basel Committee - translations: Overview of The New Basel Capital Accord - (French, Spanish) 19 April 2001 Basel Committee: Quantitative Impact Study (QIS) 18 April 2001 New central bank link: Central Bank of Oman 12 April 2001 New central bank link: Central Bank of Barbados 12 April 2001 Translations: BIS Quarterly Review March 2001 - International banking and financial market developments (French, German, Italian) 6 April 2001 New publication: Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability 30 March 2001 Press release: BIS to open Representative Office for the Americas in Mexico City 30 March 2001 Conference Announcement and Call for Papers: Third Joint Central Bank Research Conference on Risk Measurement and Systemic Risk 26 March 2001 New publication: Statistics on Payment Systems in the Group of Ten Countries: Figures for 1999 23 March 2001 Press release: Financial Stability Forum holds its fifth meeting 22 March 2001 New publication and press release: Review of Issues Relating to Highly Leveraged Institutions (HLIs) 12 March 2001 Press release: BIS Asian Consultative Council 12 March 2001 Press release: Improved BIS website launched today 7 March 2001 Special Features translations: BIS Quarterly Review March 2001 - International banking and financial market developments 6 March 2001 New publication and press release: Collateral in wholesale financial markets: recent trends, risk management and market dynamics 5 March 2001 New publication and press release: BIS Quarterly Review March 2001 - International banking and financial market developments 12 February 2001 New publication and press release: The relationship between banking supervisors and banks’ external auditors<< bis.org I have no idea why people deify Greenspan. I am sure he doesn't curry adoration. He doesn't go on the talk shows, he doesn't give interviews, he doesn't write op-ed pieces, he's not a pundit. The only thing he ever talks about is the Federal Reserve and items within its purview, and only to Congress and banker's groups. How that transmogrifies into "giving folks the idea that they will always be bailed out if they make a bad decision" mystifies me.

To: yard_man who wrote (3756)	5/19/2001 11:50:57 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

tippet: is it the man, or the system? I recall reading somewhere that it was only the least qualified to rule that should be elected to the post. Wait... checking sources: that was in that four and a half part trilogy "The Hitch Hikers Guide to the Galaxy"... OK, so it's true. AG is no deity, and I doubt he wants the mantle. The system is deplorable, but it is molded in its shape by forces larger than itself - because no sane mind would create the situation in which we find ourselves. Even an insane mind would have a hard time contemplating it, let alone steering its existence. So to abolish the system without addressing the forces just leaves nothing for them to push on. Which leads to random - or at least unpredictable - outcomes. I would rather see the system examine its structural weaknesses and attempt to take actions against the forces. CB is on to something, as usual. Which in the current case seems to be a massive overleveraging of the derivatives market. In a system of excess promises of future rewards there are four solutions: (a) reneg totally on some (b) partially reneg on all (c) stall until the promise expires or the holders forget (d) redefine the promises I can not think of (e) that would not be a combination of above. We do not know how to handle the collapse of the world banking system, which is what would happen if (a) gets out of hand here, or (b) shakes consumer confidence. It took days for the run on banks to develop before there email and CNN. I wonder how many minutes we'd have if one was triggered now? It takes me about 15 minutes to get to my branch... hmmm... I hope I have enough time. But we have dealt with inflation many times before. So, the devil we know, or the devil we don't know. Seems pretty clear that the banksters (not just AG, the whole system) would prefer inflation to collapse. Sure, they'd have a bigger mess, but at least they think they know how to clean it up. Or (more self serving) they will exist to be there at the cleanup. Thus we will see all efforts bent on (c) and (d) above and the banking system will do everything it can to preserve itself. In truth, I hope it succeeds. Because I can not fathom how our techno-leveraged society will function during the anarchy if the banking system fails. The questions then arise: (a) what is the appropriate defensive stance to take, and (b) what risks is accepting by adopting this stance? I do not know the answers, but on (a) some musings: In regional inflation, alternative currencies (e.g. gold)have been the best hedge, because a mans wealth can be transported by a man across the boundaries 16 oz x 100 lb x $250 is $400,000. But what if the inflation this time is as global as the problem, and there are no boundaries? Further, if indeed we had a properly engineered inflation, would the engineers support or undermine the emergence of a fiat to their fiat currency? I think oil instead of gold. Storage is a problem. So shares in storage facilities are a next best bet. Or in companies with oil reserves as a "liquid" asset. Fixed cost producers of stuff: hydro-electric or nuclear generators for example. Or engineering metals - not as coinage, but for engineering purposes. Pt far better than Au. Silver is no good. Beef on the hoof... virus free. Wheat, harvested. These are random musings, tossed open to the thread. But I really don't think we should toss out the system. I think we should let it do its job, and figure out what that job is and position ourselves appropriately. FWIW. John