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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bilow who wrote (73278)5/19/2001 10:31:50 PM
From: gnuman  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 93625
 
Carl, Third, you wrote "Micron is the market maker for DDR" and this is not true, in any sense of the word. DDR is available from 8 memory makers, and Micron was only expected to produce only about 7% of the DDR total for this quarter, as of the beginning of the year. It may turn out that Micron produces more, but Micron is not the market maker for DDR.

It's pretty obvious that Micron is the Market Maker for DDR pricing.

Fourth, Micron is not the "market maker" for SDRAM either. So there is less significance to Micron's selling SDRAM at DDR prices than you suggest.

For CY2000 Micron was the number two SDRAM supplier with 21% DRAM share, just behind Hyundai, and well ahead of Samsung.

What Micron is more likely doing is trying to convert their customers from SDRAM to DDR. They are not doing this by lowering their DDR prices to the market price for SDRAM, but instead by keeping their SDRAM at unattractively high rates, but offering DDR instead. This means that they make more money than if they sold only SDRAM, so it would be an attractive option

What Micron is more likely doing is trying to create a market for DDR. You don't actually believe that Micron is keeping SDRAM price unattractively high do you? They're fighting to keep market share in DRAM. And with DDR at very low share, I doubt they are sacrificing revenues on their largest selling product to create a market for DDR.

Note that if you go to Pricewatch, you will see that the cheapest DDR in the 256MB PC2100 category right now is by Nanya.

IMO, the large quantities and low prices of DDR on PriceWatch is a strong indicator of poor market acceptance.

It's fairly easy for Micron to convince the industry to convert to DDR because everybody already has the stuff ready to produce. That's why there's 360+ SKUs for DDR MBs on PriceWatch, a boatload more than the total SKUs for RDRAM based Mbs.

Again, you have to ask yourself why there are so many SKU's on PriceWatch. IMO, it's a very negative indicator.

But I do think it hilarious that while the Rambus morons started with the belief that DDR would never be as cheap as RDRAM, they have now converted to the thought that DDR is already as cheap as SDRAM, and therefore a failure.

It doesn't take a stretch to draw that conclusion at this point in time. If DDR was successful at a price premium, Micron/Crucial wouldn't be dropping prices to parity this soon out of the shoot. Like RDRAM, DDR isn't ramping to expectations. A lot of mobo makers have created and introduced DDR product based on marketing projections that haven't materialized. The result is a flood of product through third tier resellers on PriceWatch.
If DDR is to become successful in the PC market, it will take Intel to support it.

JMO's