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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16158)	5/19/2001 11:56:21 PM
From: Nancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

zeev, thanks. i believe 60-70% of newp biz actually is semi related. the .79 peg not realistic because it is based in the past growth. future growth could be much lower or negative for a while. i wouldn't pay attn to peg in a contraction period. i am surprised why it didn't do either a la veco or a la amat, given its biz mix.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16158)	5/20/2001 1:15:17 AM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 30051

Zeev, if Nancy's theory proves correct, we'll either stall and reverse at 2250 or 2388 (the August 2000 20% variance in the VXN 20day EMA was 7-days prior to the top, which was 5-1/2% higher than the day that flagged it. The Jan. 31st close was nearly the same as the day that flagged it). That would indicate one of these two resistance points will cause the reversal, and it would seem the 2250 point is the most logical resistance short term. If that happens, does this put the inverted "W" back in play, with the middle leg down to 1850? A low of 1850 could happen possibly as soon as June 8 but more than likely late as the 20th if this scenario is in place (due to the pending Fed meeting and options expiration on the 15th). I guess I'd need to check some waves here. It just seems to fall into place pretty nice again. A rally into the Fed meeting with another cut in late June along with easing bias maintained could propel the Nasdaq to push through 2250 and up to 2388 by mid-July. The question is whether that would be a continued leg up or the prelude to the last leg down. Earnings warnings, earnings, August vacations, and further economic stagnation could point to a convenient August low. I wonder if her theory works for the VIX also.