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To: Bilow who wrote (73292)	5/20/2001 4:29:49 AM
From: NightOwl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Uh,... CB, I hate to tell you this but those "interpretations" of the Meaning of PriceWatch.com weren't really Gene P's "JMOs." He knows full well that DRDRAM is a loser, and was just pointing out an alternative logical analysis. But he knows it was an unreasonable "logic." He was just picking at the unstated "nits" of your analytical logic. I hate to be the one to tell you this, but its true. Every Legend has to have somebody around to pick nits for him. Its a law. Really. Shootists and Nit Pickers. You can't be a Legend without them. Sorry but you have to take the bitter with the sweet. ...Its one of those Nobless Oblige things. 0\|0

To: Bilow who wrote (73292)	5/20/2001 9:31:04 AM
From: gnuman	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 93625

Carl, This whole thing boils down to one simple fact: "There can only be one". You obviously don't understand market segmentation, price/performance issues, and marketing strategy. While you may think of Work Stations and the Performance Mainstream segment as "niche" markets, the fact is they exist. I have no doubt that RDRAM will grow share in those segments. RDRAM already dominates the WS segment (BTW, using your logic, there can only be one CPU in the PC, the cheapest). Samsung, in stark contrast, is not pushing RDRAM to be the next mainstream memory. Samsung is keeping RDRAM prices very high, the parts are still not available on the spot chip market, and Samsung has not promised to drop prices for RDRAM. Ever. Where have you been? Why do you think the 4i initiative is getting strong emphasis by Intel and the RDRAM suppliers? I've seen forecasts of $8.00 128Mb equivalents by year end. While still high relative to SDRAM, the cost differential at the system level is rapidly declining. In the performance segments it becomes a non-issue. And of course the fact that SDRAM is cheap is the result of low demand for PC's, not a strategy of the MM's. Look back a year to see the impact of strong demand on pricing. Samsung has stated that they expect their manufacturing costs to drop for RDRAM later this year, but that is nowhere near as significant as offering to make as much as anybody can use, at a price equal to SDRAM, which is what it takes to mainstream a new memory technology. IMO, there is more RDRAM than the industry needs. P4 sales to date have not been impacted by RDRAM availability. I expect this to be true through 2002. And again, you don't understand segmentation strategy. As I predicted months ago, I expect RDRAM, DDR and SDRAM to coexist through at least 2002, with SDRAM enjoying major share. I suppose that in your opinion, the even larger quantities and even lower prices of SDRAM on PriceWatch is a strong indicator of even worse market acceptance, LOL. Large quantities of cheap SDRAM are an indicator of declining market demand for PC's. For the first time in my memory, the PC industry will see consecutive quarters of negative YOY unit growth. Production was geared for growth, so the result can only be lowball prices with the industry dumping excess inventory on the market. We'll probably see some attrition in the DRAM makers. You can't keep expanding capacity, whether through new design rules or larger wafers, in a declining market. Something has to give. There are lots of SKUs for DDR on PriceWatch because a lot of companies are selling it. This is called success, particularly in the DIY business. There are lots of SKU's on PriceWatch because a lot of companies are building it. By now I expected there would be DDR based PC's from HP and Compaq on the shelves at retailers like BestBuy. Until that happens I think the roll-out has been very disappointing. When Intel blesses the technology it will happen. But if you think that Intel will abandon RDRAM you're going to be wrong again. There will be "more than one" for a long time. Maybe you should stick to technology issues. Marketing seems to be too abstract for you. <G> JMO's

To: Bilow who wrote (73292)	5/20/2001 3:27:04 PM
From: NightOwl	Respond to of 93625

CB, This whole thing boils down to one simple fact: "There can only be one". That is, there can only be one mainstream memory, and that is the memory that is cheapest. It appears that The Revolution extends beyond technology and is threatening the very core of the old commodity pricing models. This is certainly a wide ranging conflict. First they "multiplex" our bus! Then they attempt to rewrite patent law in their own image! Next we learn we must pay this "Driver" his intractable prices no matter how much over capacity he puts on the streets! ...And NOW they insist that we must "confess" and submit ourselves to the old pagan gods of Segmentation!! ...And people wonder why California is "dancing" in the dark.<vbg> 0\|0