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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (53217)	5/20/2001 11:06:08 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 77398

ROFLMAO. no wonder you've held this stock all the way down. bye now.

To: RetiredNow who wrote (53217)	5/20/2001 1:49:55 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77398

mindmeld: it's not fair to say "you guys haven't done your homework". You keep digging up these pies and saying they are huge. But the hard work is figuring out how many people plan to sit down at the table and eat those pies to figure out how much of a slice I get in the end for my admission fee. When I do this hard work (which you do not do) and divide by the billions and billions of shares that are out there, and try to divvie up amongst the players... there isn't enough pie. So someone's going to go hungry, and I'm afraid it might be me. So far, these are the three hurdles we can look at for CSCO A) EPS 1.00/share 2010 = $20 in a mattress for 10 years B) EPS 1.70/share 2010 = $20 in a T-bill for 10 years C) EPS 3.50/share 2010 = $20 in a solid equity for 10 years. Count 10 Billion shares in 2010 and assume net margins of 15%. Revenues are then A) 67 B$/year B) 113 B$/year C) 233 B$/year Let's look at (C) and contrast the revenue you would project for CSCO versus the "Trillions" that Cellular telephony represents. If Cisco has a stable and growing revenue rate of 233 B$/year in 2010 that means that its revenue in 2009, 2010 and 2011 would be about 675 B$ or approximately equal to the debt load that faces all of the carriers today. Just what pocket do you expect that to come from? And all going to Cisco? So I kind of dismiss this as a viable possibility myself. It would be nice, but I can't find the money source. Let's look at (B) the 3 year stable revenue rate around a healthy 113 B$/year is about 325 B$, or just under half of the debt that Telcos managed to accumulate over the past 10 years. Spent in 3 years on Cisco. Where do you see this money coming from? Macro. Forget all this nice Can't See the Forrester-for-the-trees research stuff. The numbers we are talking are larger than the payload the gear is carrying. (A) is within the realm of economic possibility. But the return sucks. What is missing from this thinking?