Hi CB, This, again, will not be one of my more popular posts. Oh, well.
Re: US-China relations.
<<imagine you understand Americans very well>>
I believe I understand, to a relatively better extent than Joe-6-Pack, the Chinese on the mainland, in Taiwan and around the SE Asia region, and I understand, to a better extent than Wang-3-Cups, the Americans:0)
I may even (but will not) convincingly argue, based on education and experiences, that I understand the Americans and the Chinese better than many of the Americans and Chinese themselves do.
The easiest way to understand the other party’s point of view is to pretend, just for a moment, that you are the other party, and this is precisely where both the US and China is failing to do. I do not have a ready solution, except to believe that natural developments and time-to-think will work its traditional magic.
<<Americans like to have fun. Americans like to make money.>>
True, I agree.
I can vouch for the Chinese in all parts of the world, especially on the Mainland, in Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong and SE Asia that they also obey the demands spelt out by the dictates of fun and money. I believe in the natural consequences of these dictates to such an extent that all my geopolitical analysis start and end with them, just to make sure that the dictates are not violated. The trouble occurs when these dictates are temporarily suspend by mob driven psychological storms instigated by the few – you know, when nations go mad, and both the US and China are guilty every so often … witch hunts, cultural revolutions, civil wars, the stomping of native American Indian graves, and the trampling of indigent Tibetan traditions.
<<There hasn't been a war on US territory since 1865, and the last time we fought foreigners on US soil was 1812. We intend to keep it that way, if we can.>>
In many ways, the US is a lucky country, both in resources and in geographic situation, as all who played Risk would quickly realize.
There has been almost continuous warfare, conflicts, bloodletting and other man-made disasters in China over the past, oh, about 250-300 years. No more than an apparently necessary blip in history.
China, while OK in resources, is geographically not as advantaged, in relation to territorial defensibility, and due to no more than a historic hiccup, has suffered for it, from a bunch of nations, each now sanctimonious in their own way on many issues the transgression of which benefit them in recent history.
One of the more important reasons that the communists won the civil war against the nationalist was that the reds specifically promised the Chinese population “never again”. The declaration was succinct phrased by Mao “We have stood up” on day one of the new republic.
<<The Chinese were our allies fighting the Japanese. The Chinese army that fought with the US military was headed by a strong, heroic man who doesn't seem to get much respect in China anymore - Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek.>>
The Generalissimo does not get any respect from most Chinese, on the Mainland, in Taiwan, and all around the region, simply because he failed to deliver what the crowds wanted, and he failed to actualize Sun Yat-sen’s vision.
I believe the US general Stillwell, commander of the China theatre during WWII, gave more credit to the communist armies than the nationalist armies on their contribution to the anti-Japanese war effort, and for good reasons.
The Generalissimo’s offspring are sadly treated in Taiwan, especially by the new government (forced relocation of family home etc), and I think unconscionably. The man, at the end of any day, was an important historic figure, doing what he had to do.
I am OK with the Generalissimo, because his grand niece is cute, has long legs, and is vivacious. The man himself was simply limited by his myopic ambitions and confined imagination.
<<I don't know if the US effort in defeating the Japanese occupying China during WWII gets taught in Chinese schools these days, but we deserve thanks.>>
Unfortunately, not really, because it is presented as US interference in Chinese civil war, helping the nationalists against the communists, and then helping the nationalists to escape to Taiwan, etc, soon to be followed by the US march across the 38 parallel.
In Chongqin, the wartime capital, where I need to go for business sometimes, there is a historic detention facility that was operated jointly by the US and the KMT that is now a museum. Well, it is not a monument in celebration of humanity, and, together with the exhibited paper works and photos, does not present the US in a terrific light.
Mao actually wanted to work with the US after his take over on the mainland, in part to lessen Chinese dependence on Russia/Stalin. We know what didn’t happen with that effort, and soon, Korea blew up.
Here, to be fair, China did not have much to do with the N.Korean’s initial marching south across the 38 parallel, as we all know and it is commonly acknowledged that Stalin was the culprit.
The US reaction to the Korean conflict was to (1) put the 7th fleet in the Taiwan Strait, and (2) losing control of the US army’s command, allowing it to march north. The rest is history, and here we now are.
Same conflicts, same nemesis, same issues.
And as you say … <<VietNam, Cambodia>>
<<But now that things have cooled down the US has pulled back its military presence in what, to us, is the Western Pacific.>>
I am in the Singapore school here in that I believe US participation is necessary around the Pacific, especially in an environment when no one else can yet keep the peace, as in strongly guarantee the peace, for the region.
The region’s hope is its singularly successful economic development, the Asian financial storm not withstanding. In comparison to the achievements of Latin America and Africa, the greatest achievement of Pax-Americana is not Europe, but Asia. Europeans can always take care of themselves, even after the devastation of WWII.
Now, however convoluted China’s path to development, and however much it must necessarily have depended on domestic population, leadership, resources, energy, motivation, and will, the single greatest external philosophical influence must be attributed to the US, and the single greatest external source of financing and business execution, the overseas Chinese.
The problem with the US is that there are elements in the US society who are not motivated to see the rise of a strong China. Only natural.
The problem with China is that there are elements in the Chinese society who wants to be beholden to none in the neighborhood. Again, only natural.
To be politically incorrect for a moment, all the spurious issues concerning Tibet, birth control, prison labour, Falun Gong cult, blah, blah, blah, are exactly that, spurious, as each society develops at its own pace, and Mainland China is about where the US was in the 1920-30s, you know, when the blacks could not vote, and people could not drink. Taiwan is a few years ahead, but by not as much as they make themselves out to be. Hong Kong? We are way ahead in some ways, even when compared to the US, and behind in other ways.
<<There is a lot of posturing going on about Taiwan>>
Posturing is a good thing. I would start worrying if the folks stop posturing.
<<The goose lays a golden egg>>
The goose will be kept alive, unless it decides to commit suicide, which it won’t, at least not long enough to implement suicide. This is why I am not, and have never been, worried about war across the Taiwan Strait. Should the equity markets wobble because of Strait relations, buy.
<<We promised our ally, the Generalissimo, that we would protect Taiwan from Chairman Mao, and we have kept that promise>>
Mao promised the Chinese that no foreigners will ever be allowed to interfere in domestic affairs, and any Chinese government, to stay in power, must try to deliver on that promise. This simple minded nationalistic matter is simply a function of societal development phasing.
Promises are invariably dangerous, especially if the parties affected act based on the strength of those promises. I do not promise any of my relations directly that I would step forward financially should the need arise; I only made such a promise to my father that I would, right before he passed away.
Absolute promises, once made, cannot allow for nuances and exceptions. The US and Europe is now about to learn the consequences of promises made in the Balkans, as the Albanians starts to kill innocents, and soon, the promises made to Israel will be called upon, even as they do to others exactly as others had done to their ancestors (given that I have Jewish half-brothers and am a member of a Jewish fraternity, I can speak more incorrectly).
<<In the fullness of time, China has evolved towards a more enlightened respect for the rights of individuals, and hopefully will continue to evolve.>>
While in Beijing, I look out my hotel window, and I see Intel, Microsoft, GE, Motorola, Ericsson headquarter buildings.
I am in Yichang, the site of the Three Gorges Dam project. I can walk down the road and have a genuine McDonald’s burger. The city has only six hundred thousand inhabitants.
The street level newsstand has hundreds of publications, on all manner of subjects, limited only by one dictate, no criticism of the communist party. This criticism, while not happening directly, is happening obliquely, in print.
Then, there are the village level elections. Reforms happen gradually, but they happen by design, inexorably.
In the 20 years that I have been doing business in much has already changed. The pace astounds me, the quality of execution better than most places around the world, the magnitude boggles the mind, and the issues covered all encompassing.
Should the China experiment succeed, and the Southeast Asia and Latin American experiments fail, along with that of the Russian one, the world will still have gained, net net.
<<We don't pose an aggressive threat to China>>
This is not true historically. The US support for Chiang during the Chinese civil war caused no less suffering in China than during the Japanese invasion. This is simply a consequence of interfering in matters that the US had no complete understand of, just like in the Balkans not so long ago, only on a more consequential scale, over a longer period of time.
I do not believe it is people like you that China are worried about.
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Embassy bombing, E3, MFN, NMD, Japan rearming …
The message in China is pretty loud and clear … even in Russia’s decline, the US treads gently … what is the magical Russian sauce? Well, basely speaking, number of multiple reentry vehicles tipped with appropriately formed fusion material.
Now you may see the problem of the leadership in China, if they want to remain leaders, and the opportunity of the opposition, if they want to obtain leadership position.
Questions:
Which set of leaders do the US prefer?
What can the US do to influence the outcome?
Bush thinks he knows. I know he doesn’t. Here we have the seed of one possible future.
Chugs, Jay |
