KOPN CC Notes from Ragingbull.com:
Sorry these are not organized better. I didn't take actual notes, this is from memory:
First, the actual slide show that was given is now posted on the Kopin website.
Kopin had prototypes of several different Japanese 3G phones there at the conference, which they gave demos of. Said that Japan would introduce 3G phones in Q4. Said the Japanese are only interested in high-speed full-clolor video, nothing less would do. Currently waiting for the optics, software, infrastructure, etc to all come together.
Second, there wasn't a lot of new information presented. Here are a few things I noted:
John Fan said that Cyberdisplay should be profitable "by the fourth quarter". Not sure whether this meant "in" Q4 or by the end of Q3. Currently shipping 150k cyberdisplays per month, will be shipping 300k/month by the end of the year based only on current contracts in hand.
Very strong order increases by camcorder manufacturers.
Currently working with someone on a "web browser" incorporating the Cyberdisplay. When asked whether it was a mobile device or a non-mobile device, he replied "both".
Implied that there would be a stream of new customer announcements throughout the year.
HBT R&D going very well. On track for InP HBT. Felt that customers would be ready in Q4.
Optical products to be available in Q4. Currently working with customers on this issue.
No uptick in HBT orders yet. Kopin's goal is to ship HBTs to all the major RF manufacturers except RFMD who makes their own.
Oh yeah, the most important thing. Fan implied that 2002 revenue could be over $100M, split pretty evenly between Cyberdisplay and HBT.
This did not include any 3G wins or the new optical products.$100M would be more revenue than 2000. We're talking .20-.30/share. If 3G comes through or their optical line takes off?
Also, they are not planning to finish the second fab until Q4 due to the slowdown.
With a little bit of research, I found out that they will be able to produce their optical products on their current MOCVD equipment. Therefore, I don't believe they need to make any huge capital expenditures to produce these products (unless they run out of capacity and that's not a bad thing). But, I don't know if they will sell bare VCSEL dies, or more finished products. [Harry's note, SCMR stated they are still seeing a shortage of VCSEL's. ASP have not come down. There are a limited number of suppliers]
My impression is that when they announce the optical product line, they will already have customers lined up (Nortel???).
One last thing is that John Fan said a number of companies have come to KOPN for custom development. No mention of revenue.
Kopin is trying to put together a full 3G phone display assembly for sale to OEMS similar to what they have done for camcorders. Right now, for camcorders, OEMS can buy the Cyberdisplay from Kopin and the interface ASIC from Motorola. Kopin wants to put together a similar deal for 3G cell phone OEMs, including a dispay, optics, and ASIC.
Also, KOPN has opened a Japanese office which now has 3 or 4 employees working full time with Japanese OEMS. This was a big surprise to me. From my perspective, it shows that KOPN has been accepted by the Japanese OEMs and is working very closely with them. It's not easy to break into that circle. This is good news.
ragingbull.lycos.com
sell- great notes!
One thing that I left out that I thought was important, was that when asked about capacity, Fan said that they are currently using maybe 1 or 2 machines for manufacturing, and 15 standing by waiting for the orders. In other words, KOPN will be able to RAMP UP production on very short notice, and that is absolutely vital in a quickly changing economy, such as ours tends to be.
Any new customers that are announced will be big additions to earnings, because the inventory problem only exists with current customers. Look for some analyst comments in the next few days, as I'm sure that they were quite impressed.
That Big after hours buy is not surprising, considering the confidence that Fan emmulated. He displayed a very different attitude than most CEO's that I have heard lately. Confident, yet smug, kind of like "hey we're here waiting for the other aspects of technology to catch up, when you guys are ready come see us, because we'll be here". He definitely wasn't trying to beg for institutional investments, and just layed it out on the table for the smart ones to recognize.
ragingbull.lycos.com
Here is a link to the slide show presentation. While the slide show is compelling, the Q&A at the end was the most exciting.
I highly recommend that any new investors in KOPN go through this slide show, if you know what you have, then you aren't so quick to dump it. The standout for me in the slide show is the balance sheet!
media.corporate-ir.net
ragingbull.lycos.com
KOPN Institutional Holdings
Take a look at the new institutional holdings. The percentage of KOPN's stock held by institutions jumped about 3-4% in the 1st quarter (between Jan 1 and March 31.)Institutions were net buyers in the first quarter.
MSDW increased holdings by 89%
Capital Research and Management bought a new position of 2M shares.
Seligman funds bought a new position of 1.13M shares.
Of course, a number of funds closed their entire positions out. But, the good news is that funds as a whole are NOT dumping KOPN.
nasdaq.com 60&symbol=IBM&selected=KOPN%60
ragingbull.lycos.com
Gee, I hate to seem too excited, but on April 20, Prudential upgraded Alpha and Anadigics, and KOPN is the newest supplier to both. Keep in mind, that both of these are new customers who don't have an inventory build up problem. They are also new additions to KOPN's revenue stream, which are not included in current earnings estimates.
This is only the tip of the iceberg for Kopin. In other words, Kopin is on the leading edge of the next buildout phase.
ragingbull.lycos.com |
