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To: KyrosL who wrote (103506)	5/20/2001 3:49:51 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

KyrosL, I think you will be proved wrong about everything (in your post) except your purchase of gold -- Reflation will fail (the Fed simply does not have power to decide inflation or deflation based on its monetary policy without respect to current conditions), unemployment will be in the double digits by the end of next year, inflation will be a temporary flare-up soon, followed by a severe contraction that no amount of printing will impact. People keep talking about an energy crisis -- if you live in California or Brazil, I'm sure it feels like a crisis. Also California is a big part of the US (and its economy), but I wouldn't call it a crisis in the sense that I expect it to persist, spread and/or get worse in years to come. Energy prices are only now coming back into equilibrium with other goods, IMO. They have been extraordinarily cheap by a lot of measures. Hence, it is reasonable to expect a new set of base prices, but I seriously doubt runaway prices, absent all-out war in the ME. Markets are already at work trying to correct the errors in California and Brazil ... Some would argue that the service industries -- i.e. those which are a larger part of the economy now than in times past, are less prone to swings. I think we are already getting early indications that this is not the case, but that the reverse is true. If anything, I expect the unemployment situation to get substantially worse than if more of the jobs were in the manufacturing sector as a percentage. I expect the financial sector will be very hard hit. Right now the losses seem to be primarily in high tech and some in manufacturing, but it is early yet ... Trying to discern exactly how bad it will be now may be a bit foolhardy, unless one can extrapolate the hopeful signs as good as the pundits ... I am just guessing that they are wrong. Seems a safe bet. JMWO, Regards, Tippet