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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BirdDog who wrote (37089)	5/20/2001 5:20:24 PM
From: RR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Hi BirdDog! Nice to meet you. Answers/comments to your points follow per your request: 1.) "Tax cut" Great. Glad to have it. However, will it mean that much to the market per se? No. Don't think so. I forget the figure that I saw recently that stated the amount an average American could expect to get. I do recall my impression when I heard or read it. It didn't strike me as an earth mover as to individuals pumping it into the market. One could argue that the total amount will have an impact, but that total amount has got to be spent by the individual. Will it go to goods, savings, car payments, buy more stock? Don't know. Lastly, is it not already built into the market? 2.) "Fed will continue to cut rates" Built into the market already in my view. 3.) "Trillions sitting on the dock" Now I like that one. Agree. I have said that for ages. I firmly believe that will have an impact. I believe it was just last week in one of my posts where I stated that as soon as we start to see some recovery, then look out because that money will rush in. 4.) "Investors don't want to miss out on the next run up" Agree. See number 3. 5.) "Once a little momentum gets going, they are all jumping in mass" Agree. See number 3. 6.) "Most the game right now is psychological...... MrMarket was anticipating much worse news than he has received ..... So unless warnings are real bad, they will ignore the news or buy on it" I'm not convinced we have seen the worst yet. Q2 will be bad based on warnings and revisions already given. I hope that forward guidance coming out of Q2 will indicate some positive outlook. It may very well be Q4 or Q1/02 as I said last week. I believe investors are resilient. The market can absorb some bad news from Q2. It's expected. That expectation may prevent the market going so low to test lows versus propelling it higher, however. Consequently, I remain guarded until confirmation of trend. 7.) "Even though this weeks volume may not have been real good. Hasn't it increased dramatically from a month ago" Still too low in my view. No conviction. No clear reversal. _____________________________ Those are my comments, BirdDog. If you follow my posts over the years, you will know that you are talking to one of the most bullish people on SI. I have great bullish optimism for the future, but not this week, or next. My post to which you responded was my view short term. One short term bullish scenario that is probable is for the Naz to break out above 2250 with volume. For 30 days, the Naz has been in that 2000-2200 range, some say like a coil waiting to let go. Let's hope so. But then right around the corner is earnings warnings and that all important forward guidance comments. Nice to meet you. Let's talk again. Back to the hammock at poolside, where two 14 year olds await me to shoot them with this huge water gun! Rick