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To: JHP who wrote (103513)	5/20/2001 5:26:38 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

I realize everyone wants dollars -- when everyone finally has them, then what?? That may sound overly-simplistic, but it is a serious question ... Everyone wants dollars because the dollar is strong, the dollar is strong because everyone wants dollars ... We couldn't have made it to where we are without a self-reinforcing rush to the USD. What does that tell me about the future? Everyone will want dollars until they no longer do ... The strength of the dollar is not some new found law of physics, or some mathematical fixed point which we have been progressing toward for years because the US has somehow become forever better than everyone else in the world at creating real economic wealth ... What do you want from me? I can't say I know exactly when this unwinds, but unwind it will and it isn't going to take 5-10 years ... I can say this: the unwinding will be rapid. It is inevitable. Everyone can try to hedge by piling into the same vehicle, everyone can also pile into one lifeboat from a sinking ship ... the exodus from the dollar (more specifically dollar-denominated assets) will be like an oversold sporting event in the third world ... I think we'd both be better served to consider what the next "must-own" currency will be. I remember when Japan was going to "own the US" -- it really wasn't that long ago. To say that was hogwash you would have been as outcast then as someone now saying the USD is in for a good drubbing ...