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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (32373)	5/21/2001 1:19:39 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 70241

Hi RTS, That is a very interesting article. From the conference calls that I did hear, active optical component demand has not slowed down. There are still experiencing 100 percent YtY growth at ADCT. The SCMR guidance is confirming that. On the optical component passive side I know that OC192 parts are extremely difficult to manufacture and that the yields are low. It is extremely hard calibrating the test equipment I am told let alone manufacturing it. I am not sure I agree totally with the assertion that the analysts are down grading the stocks to get them cheap at this point. The slide has been to long and too deep for that. The brokerage firms have been burned too, so they too are gun shy. I agree with the boom/bust cycle assertion though. I think the thing to remember is that we will not reach the boom levels we saw in 1999/2000. Even with a capacity crunch, it will be difficult to finance build outs are the old levels. Investors won't exactly be lining up to buy the deals as in the past. To add detail to the article, a lot of automation program at optical component manufacuters are internal. The only play I know of are: NEWP, ASYS and VECO (optical component manufacturing equipment) and they are not pure plays. They all sell also into the semiconductor metrology sector. Component manufacturers with next generation products: AVNX and NUFO. VCSEL's KOPN. Contract optical component assembly: SLR (Mostly NT business, so caution advised).

To: Return to Sender who wrote (32373)	5/21/2001 1:52:16 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70241

Overall the oil service group looks like it has had a great run so far. It looks like it need to consolidate though. A few stock look like they have to test their break outs. Does anyone have a different read on these stocks or a fundamental view? This is not a group I follow. DO: Attempt to break a triple top set up???? Current OBV slope indicates lack of buying interest to push it through for a sustained move right now. 207.61.23.99 GLM: Really ugly looking chart, converging moving average indicate proper basing period, but weak OBV indicates something is wrong with this stock 207.61.23.99 NE: Trapped in a trading range. 207.61.23.99 RDC: Potential triple top break out??? Slope of OBV indicates lack of buying interest to push it through for a sustain rally. 207.61.23.99 RIG: Triple top break out of trading range. I would like to see if it can do an OBV break out though. Worth seeing how it handles the pull back. 207.61.23.99 SDC: Break out of base. Overbought short term. Almost an OBV break out. Would wait to see how it handles the pullback. 207.61.23.99 TDW: OBV confirming the move. Will reach resistance at 52 though. 207.61.23.99