Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The IB Dude who wrote (39731)	5/21/2001 7:40:50 AM
From: The IB Dude	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

OT................ Dear Zach, all revolutions are dead this is a new age with a new digital revolution. History teaches no lessons, Raj or no Raj we got to move on in this new world. Forget about the past, be a futurist, think of tomorrow the digital wave if for no reason other than self-interest, it is time to start believing in the digital revolution, our past is history our future only hope is graduating to a new kind of revolutionary thinking where we get unstuck from past and move on.. Even the smartest people have been known to get the wrong end of the futurology stick and have remained stuck in past. History is past time of rich academics! In the digital world we need to fast forward our frame of mind otherwise we shall be left behind. The first time the Duke of Wellington saw the steam locomotive, he sniffed: I see no reason to suppose that these machines will ever force themselves into general use. Alexander Graham Bell believed the telephone would be a device for the upper classes, offered to the public in a limited number of locations. The idea of a world in which millions could call each other across the globe would have struck him as ridiculous. The digital age, however, is bigger, bolder and more revolutionary than any Stephenson's Rocket or Bakelite handset. Baffled by the jargon? Infuriated by the technology? So are most of us, but these are early days. Before long the digital era will be as simple and as pervasive as the telephone and television set of today. The real problem is an intellectual one. Revolutions happen invisibly to those in their midst. The mobs storming the Bastille in 1789 didn't have regicide on their minds, yet four years later Louis XVI was dead. Seventeen months after that, Robespierre followed him to the guillotine and France was changed for ever. There is a harsh lesson for us all there. Revolutions, digital or otherwise, happen in spite of ourselves. Either you're pulling the tumbrel or you're in it.

To: The IB Dude who wrote (39731)	5/22/2001 7:16:10 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

On May 15, Tyson, dean of the Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley, former national economic adviser to former President Clinton and board member of about 800 companies, came to talk about the old New Economy. The real question, of course, is when will this damn non-recession-but-nasty-slowdown in technology end? A light up ahead? Despite the increasing pessimism of economists, there was actually a surprising bit of optimism among this crowd. It's a buzz I am just starting to hear from the tech set. My old pal Ellen Hancock, CEO of Exodus (EXDS), said she's starting to see some old customers return to her Web hosting business. At my table discussion, people seemed to see more light than dark now. Still, Auren found the people at his table to be more pessimistic. Maybe those folks were still trying to raise funding. Tyson didn't want to make any predictions, but noted that the optimists are seeing a recovery by the end of the year. However, she also said that this is the fastest and most severe slowdown we've ever seen. One hopes that means a fast recovery as well. Tyson did point to some good signs: Investment in equipment is at a post World War II high. Half of that is investment in IT, which means IT spending has accounted for 20 percent to 25 percent of the growth in the economy in recent years. She does not believe that we will enter into a Japan-like economic flu. We have more policy and tax options, plus a budget surplus (for now) that can help prevent it. She believes that the measured productivity increase since 1995 is real, and the decline in Q1 this year was merely a blip. Unemployment and inflation are still low, and huge segments of the economy, such as health care, have not been affected yet. On the other hand, she noted that this year has brought us negative growth in IT spending, after all that nice speedy increase. We could have a couple of slow years, she said, although we'll emerge stronger in the end. The energy crisis could have an appalling effect on California. Some economists actually express more pessimism about the California economy than the national economy because of our energy shortage and inflation-inducing prices. Hey, aren't we supposed to be leading the way? She also deflated the idea that President Bush's tax plan will help stimulate the economy. Tax cut benefits take a while to trickle into the economy. By the time taxes are cut, we may already be on our way out of the doldrums. "One hundred billion worth of the tax cuts will come into effect when they're no longer needed" to stimulate the economy, she said. Getting people to buy again It seems to me that consumer psychology plays a huge role in the recovery, and that's something we cannot predict very well. Tyson talked about the "wealth effect." Until last year, a hell of a lot of people felt very wealthy, if not healthy or wise. They spent and borrowed money against their wealth and put it into the economy. Wages have held up, but Nasdaq's decline makes everyone feel much poorer and more cautious. When the public will feel confident enough to hit the malls again is anyone's guess. Mine is before Christmas. Most of the 10 people at my table were also surprisingly optimistic, although they were clearly worried about the energy crisis thing. My old pal Bill Reichert, president of Garage.com, seems to feel that the VC community is still spending at high levels historically, and that the best companies are getting funded. Most of the dead meat in their portfolios has been fed to the vultures, and they should start some real investing again after they return from summer vacation. It may be wishful thinking, but the inside word for today seems to be recovery. Keep an eye out for more signs.