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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (53239)	5/21/2001 9:41:08 AM
From: GVTucker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77398

John, the key to me is if that 30% growth is dependable. And history has shown that no matter what the company or the industry is, 30% growth is NOT dependable, especially for a company Cisco's size. As the past year has shown, Cisco is subject to economic cycles just like most of the rest of the tech industry. And 30% compounded growth is dang near impossible when growth is negative for a year. It could happen, yeah, but the probability isn't high.

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (53239)	5/21/2001 10:19:00 AM
From: Bicycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77398

If one goes back and looks at CSCO stock prices and appreciation over the years, they will notice a predictable geometric rise for quite a number of years before the 'crazy season' began sometime in late 1998. A reasonable person who lacks the sophisticated analytical tools to apply a rigourous mathematical assessment of the matter could assume away the bubble bonus of 1999 and early 2000, apply some discount for the current troubles and arrive at a reasonable price today of about $36, and view the market's current price of $20 as an opportunity. Again, assumptions must be made. But since we all have a thick layer of petroleum jelly on our crystal balls anyway, we must be prepared for some inaccuracy. Many will be surprised, some pleasantly, others not. Anyway, I enjoy your posts. I don't worry about the value of your CSCO position, the value of your posts depend more on your reasoning and logic than the mix of your portfolio. I don't care if you have zero shares or all of them. Bye4Now, FD.