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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GVTucker who wrote (53241)	5/21/2001 9:50:35 AM
From: Ed Forrest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77398

And yet another strong opening. Are the "rolling blackouts" over for Cisco?

To: GVTucker who wrote (53241)	5/21/2001 9:55:02 AM
From: RetiredNow	Respond to of 77398

I know, except for one thing. The analysis I did was very simplistic and doesn't take into account a whole host of other issues. For instance, if the economy recovers, more than likely the PE will be greater than what you think. In addition, there will be large fluctuations up and down as Cisco comes out with new news. In addition, if Cisco's competitors stumble worse than Cisco stumbles, then Cisco benefits relatively. And that is what has been happening so far. Lucent is out of the picture. Nortel just laid off 20K people and lost their COO and their CEO is leaving in less than a year. Only two more to go: Alcatel and Ericsson. Another thing that you noted was that I had growth rates that were pretty much static. Not likely. Some growth rates may accelerate (like VPNs and IP Telephony), whereas others may decelerate (like Ethernet switching). In addition, Cisco always enters new markets and these aren't even figured in. Also, they exit markets that aren't panning out. Which one will those be? There is so much that could affect the stock price either way. My guess is that the positives and negatives will balance out. In fact, I actually believe that things are so bad right now, that over the next 5 years, the positives will be more pronounced than the negatives, which will give us an upside surprise. But the good bet is $45 per share, 5 years from now. In fact, I'd be willing to bet a very large sum that we see $45 long before those 5 years are up. It may just blip up to that price prior to the 5 years being up, but I bet we see it nonetheless.