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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: RetiredNow who wrote (53253)5/21/2001 12:33:22 PM
From: Stock Farmer  Respond to of 77399
 
Hi Mindmeld - please don't misunderstand. Let me be very clear with respect to CSCO

I think that the returns to investors will be low.

I think that appreciable returns will only accrue to nimble speculators.

I reserve the right to change my mind too, and I do hope you continue in this direction.

The only reason to buy a share of CSCO (or any other "growth" stock) is to sell it to someone else before TMinus. Where TMinus is the date when it becomes permanently worth less than I paid for it in opportunity-cost-adjusted dollars.

Some stocks have an expected TMinus date that is so far out in the future that one can buy and hold and sleep at night. Others have a TMinus date much closer in.

Our calculations show that there is a significant and nonzero risk that TMinus on CSCO could be very close indeed.

John.



To: RetiredNow who wrote (53253)5/22/2001 7:50:47 AM
From: Stock Farmer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 77399
 
Hi Mindmeld - cross post from the NT thread.

Another way to look at "market share". Who's first depends on the knife used to slice it... and who's holding the knife.

Does the logic of victory goes to <number 1> always hold, or can <number N> displace <number 1>.

Amusing how discussion changes when Cisco or Juniper or NT or ALA or... are variously substituted in the sentence above.

John.

Message 15834423

Here's the latest TELECOM Equipment Makers' Stats: NT #1 in Q1 - 2001
Sorry the table isn't aligned very well due to bad cut and paste, but y'all
will figure it out :-)
Nortel Networks is #1 in equipment sales
globally, optical sales for Q1 2001
21-MAY-2001

BRAMPTON, Ontario – Nortel Networks reaches the #1 spot in the global
telecom equipment market in the first quarter 2001, and continues to hold #1
rank in optical sales by a wide margin, according to a report issued last week by
UBS Warburg.

UBS Warburg reports that Nortel Networks is the biggest equipment provider in
terms of sales, with a 16.8 percent market share, and #1 in optical systems sales
with a 37.9 percent market share.

UBS Warburg is a business group of UBS AG, one of the
top ten banks in the world. UBS Warburg's May 14
issue of Global Telebits is a review of first quarter results of nine of the largest
global telecom equipment providers.

In global equipment sales, Lucent follows in second place with a 16.1 percent
share. Alcatel captures third with 15 percent share, and rounding out the top five
are Cisco and Siemens with market shares of 12.8 and 12.5 percent respectively.
Ericsson narrowly trails Seimens with a market share of 12.1 percent. The
remaining three companies are closely grouped: Avaya, 5 percent; Nokia, 4.9
percent; and Motorola, 4.7 percent.

Telecom Equipment Sales ($ in millions)

1Q01 1Q00 YOY Growth Mkt grth 1Q01 Mkt grth 1Q00

Nortel 6,177 6,322 -2.0 % 16.8% 17.7%

Lucent 5,915 7,154 -17.0% 16.1% 20.0%

Alcatel 5,530 4,281 29.0% 15.0% 12.0%

Cisco 4,728 4,933 -4.0% 12.8% 13.8%

Siemens 4,622 4,137 12.0% 12.5% 11.6%

Ericsson 4,472 3,977 12.0% 12.1% 11.1%

Avaya 1,852 1,820 2.0% 5.0% 5.1%

Nokia 1,814 1,347 35.0% 4.9% 3.8%

Motorola 1,722 1,809 -5.0% 4.7% 5.1%
________________________________________
TOTAL 36,832 35,780 3.0%

In optical sales, Nortel Networks' nearest competitors are Lucent, 23.7 percent;
and Alcatel, 23.1 percent, in a group of six companies examined by UBS Warburg.
The remaining three are Tellabs, 7.2 percent; Ciena, 6 percent; and Cisco, 1.9
percent.

Nortel Networks leads in the global market despite the industry's negative
growth in the United States. Although Europe showed positive growth, UBS
Warburg predicts the decline in global capital spending to continue in 2001.

In a breakdown of equipment sales by geography – North America/United States
and the rest of the world – Nortel Networks shows a 21.2 percent market share
in the U.S. and 14 percent internationally.

In market share by geography, Lucent leads the U.S. market with a 28.8 percent
share, followed by Nortel. In the international market, Alcatel leads with 18.9
percent share, followed closely by Ericsson, 17.5 percent; and Siemens, 17.2
percent; followed by Nortel.

A notable gain for Nortel Networks was reported in wireless infrastructure sales,
with a year-over-year growth of 38 percent. Nortel rises to #3, knocking Lucent
to fourth in the ranking. Nortel's market share in wireless grew from 12.7 percent
in Q1 2000 to 16.3 percent in Q1 2001.

Ericsson continues to lead the wireless category with 36.7 percent market share
in Q1 2001, with a slight increase of five tenths of a percent over first quarter
last year. Motorola, 18.5 percent; is second, followed by Nortel, Lucent, 15.1
percent; and Nokia, 13.3 percent.

Nortel Networks keeps its #2 position in sales to service providers with 17.7
percent of market, behind Lucent, 20.8 percent, and narrowly ahead of Alcatel,
17.5 percent. Ericsson, 15 percent, and Siemens, 13 percent, round out the top
five.

In enterprise sales, Nortel Networks retains its #3 position at 13.5 percent
market share despite a two point year-over-year decline. Cisco dominates this
market sector with 39 percent; Avaya claims second with a 22.7 percent share.
Following Nortel is Siemens, 11.3 percent share, and Alcatel, 6.8 percent share.