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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (103705)5/21/2001 12:59:44 PM
From: craig crawford  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 436258
 
10:59am 05/21/01

Gold stock prices 'irrational': Lehman ($GOX, HM, NEM, PDG) By Tomi Kilgore

The CBOE Gold Index ($GOX) is moving up 2.3 percent, and is now up 27 percent since the end of April. Among its more active components, Newmont Mining (NEM) is slipping 19 cents to $23.81, Homestake Mining (HM) is tacking on 16 cents to $8.04 and Placer Dome (PDG) is 28 cents better at $12.46. Homestake's stock reaced a 52-week high of $8.15 earlier in the session, while Placer Dome matched its high of $12.48. Those stocks have seen percentage gains of 31, 29 and 23 percent, respectively, in May. Analyst Peter Ward at Lehman Bros. tempered recent enthusiasm by saying gold stock valuations were generally "irrational." Ward feels gold stocks are already pricing in an additional $50 per ounce increase in the price of gold, and feels the risk/return profile is unfavorable. "We recommend reducing position," he told clients in a research note. He pointed out that the gold market has had several "speculative" rallies in the last few year which have all failed. And due to a fifteen-year inventory of gold increasingly being liquidated, Ward says it's hard to believe any "squeeze" is imminent.