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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (165477)5/21/2001 9:02:07 PM
From: calgal  Respond to of 176387
 
Dell, Jobs engaging in a little trash talk
Computer legends' rivalry, grudges seem to grow with industry's age
By John Markoff
The New York Times
Monday, May 21, 2001
SAN FRANCISCO — They represent the rival styles of the graying personal computer industry, and they don't seem to like each other very much.

In one corner stands 46-year-old Steve Jobs, co-founder and chairman of Apple Computer Inc., the former prodigy who in 1977 introduced the Apple II, the machine that dominated the first generation of personal computing.

In the other corner is Michael Dell, 36, founder and chairman of Dell Computer Corp., who as a college student in the 1980s took the anti-Apple machine — the Intel-Microsoft-based PC — and began revolutionizing the way desktop computers were sold.

But beyond their longstanding business rivalry, the two men seem to harbor a highly personal grudge, which has only intensified as the personal computer industry has started showing its age.

A few years ago, Dell derided Apple by saying that its shareholders would be better served if the company were to close its doors and they put their money in mutual funds. Jobs retaliated by drawing a bull's-eye over a picture of Dell's face onstage at a Macworld exhibition, and announced that he was coming after Dell and his customers.

The trash talk has continued.

Just last month, Dell, touring the United States and Australia, repeatedly predicted Apple's doom.

This month, Jobs, noting that "Michael Dell has been saying some disparaging things about us," used a boxy portable Dell computer as a foil to show off the features of Apple's sleek new iBook. Jobs vowed that the new laptop would enable his company to recapture the lead in the school market from Dell.

Some say all this counterpunching is best explained by the fact that the industrial era that the two men did much to create is ending.

"There's nothing like a downturn in the computer industry to turn sunshine boys into grumpy old men," said Richard Shaffer, a veteran industry analyst who is publisher of the Computer Letter newsletter.

Accustomed to 20 percent or higher growth rates the past several decades, the U.S. personal computer industry has actually shrunk the past two quarters.

Computer executives are hoping that the downturn is merely cyclical. But many industry analysts predict that the industry will never grow as quickly as it did in the past, driven first by the spread of the home computer and then the Internet boom. And they say maybe that is what is eating at Jobs and Dell.

Although both men are the stuff of industry legend, they have little in common other than each having inspired young entrepreneurs ever since they founded their respective companies as remarkably young men: Jobs, at 21, in his parents' garage in Los Altos, Calif., in 1976; Dell, at 19, from his University of Texas dorm room in 1984.

But their differences are vast.

"They represent very different generations," said David Yoffie, a professor at the Harvard Business School who has closely followed the computer industry.

Jobs is a child of the 1960s and '70s, who once dated folk singer Joan Baez and even now speaks fondly of the counterculture.

Dell, who came of age in the Reagan '80s, is the quintessential Republican businessman.

A vocal supporter of George W. Bush's presidential campaign who contributed $266,000 to the party and the campaign last year, Dell has figured prominently in Bush's technology advisory meetings since the election. Jobs was a supporter of Bill Clinton, a White House guest who slept in the Lincoln bedroom and returned the favor by letting Clinton stay in a mansion Jobs owns in Woodside, Calif., when Clinton visited his daughter at Stanford.

People who know both Dell and Jobs say they are also very different types of executives.

"Michael has been a pioneer in shaping how people buy," said Andrew Heller, a former IBM computer designer who is an investor in Austin, where Dell's company is based. It is Dell Computer that has refined the logistics and inventory-control methods of selling computers by telephone and online, assembling each machine and shipping it within hours of the customer's order.

"Steve's brilliance has been in determining what people want to buy," Heller said of Jobs. He thought a moment and added, "Michael is now a very stable executive, while Steve has remained mercurial."

As Dell has grown into the consummate high-technology manager, marshaling his troops as effectively as they regiment Dell's just-in-time factories, Jobs has remained a notorious anti-manager. He has often said that he focuses more on leadership than on management. Management, he has argued, tends to be about persuading people to do things they do not want to do, while leadership is about inspiring people to do things they never thought they could.

Compare that philosophy with the advice Dell dispensed in his 1999 autobiographical business strategy book "Direct From Dell," in which he wrote, "Mobilize your people around a common goal."

Yoffie, the business professor, said each executive probably recognizes the other's strengths.

"There probably is a little bit of envy on both sides," Yoffie said. "Dell has never been as creative in industrial design or on the leading edge as Apple. And Apple has got to be envious of Dell's business model. Market growth has eluded Apple for a decade."

austin360.com



To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (165477)5/22/2001 7:21:33 AM
From: edamo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
 
darrell....i read "mikey's" book, and as i have stated it seemed like a bit of plagiarism from ouchi's "theory z", which i'm sure mikey read...

the "third reich" had a similar vision...they ended up causing more pain to themselves ala stalingrad and leningrad, which eventually weakened their overall game plan...

ed a.



To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (165477)5/22/2001 1:10:09 PM
From: kaka  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
 
D.J

Re: They're now in the beginning stages of attacking networking, storage, high-end server applications, and services/software implementation by employing the five stage processes here as well, from the ground up.

This must give pundits a good laugh. They'll point out Dell's specious attempts at services, and Dell's attempt at high margin items.....and then point out the lack of revenue growth in certain areas.

Dell's direct model was not supposed to work anywhere except in the US. Then it was ok for it to work in England, but nowhere else in Europe.....Europeans don't buy direct. Now it can't work in specific countries in Europe. And, of course, it can't work in Asia, where buyers are too nationalistic. Check out the workstation numbers?

""Dell was the only vendor that grew worldwide units and revenue both annually and sequentially, with dramatic market share gain in Western Europe(2), adding more than five percentage points in a single quarter.""

Dell also is not supoosed to do 4 and 8 way servers, but we were told that segment grew 42% yoy. Just make sure when you mention this, you detail the fact you are talking about UNITS.

Cheers,
Kaka



To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (165477)5/22/2001 1:18:53 PM
From: kaka  Respond to of 176387
 
Merril note.

Dell Computer Corp – 22 May 2001
On the Road with Dell
Yesterday we were on the road with Dell President and COO
Kevin Rollins visiting investors.
• Dell has not seen any indication that demand has turned
favorable. The company continues to expect a turn only in
the 4Q timeframe due to such drivers as Windows XP,
Intel’s P4 (Brookdale chipset with SDRAM), and the
beginnings of the Y2k refresh cycle. XP should especially
help to drive consumer demand. Note that the high water
mark for pre-Y2k spending was 2Q99, so a three year
replacement cycle for desktops implies that 2Q02 should be
the high water mark for the Y2k replacement cycle.
Importantly, Dell is not expecting any further tanking of
overall demand.
• Dell sees the current environment of very weak demand as
the ideal period in which to accelerate its market share gains
as customers are much more price sensitive. When demand
improves, component prices drop less quickly, profits
improve and price aggression is less likely and less effective
– even Dell’s less efficient competitors can sell PCs at a
profit. Market share gains have always been sticky for Dell,
and the company sees its current gains through aggressive
pricing as fuel for its future growth. Dell believes that its
aggressive pricing combined with very weak demand could
cause consolidation in the industry. Eventually Dell sees the
top three players with a total of 80% market share, much
higher than now.
• While Dell’s margins should improve when demand returns,
the company manages to the operating margin line and will
tend to drive gross margin in lockstep with operating
expense improvements.
• Dell believes that the PC industry can get back worldwide
unit growth in the 10-15% range.
• Dell management emphasized three growth drivers for the
company going forward:
1. The mix shift to enterprise hardware - Dell continues to
sell an increasing percentage of higher-end products
(notebooks, servers, storage). Desktops now make up
only a little less than 50% of revenue. The current
“sweet-spot” of commoditizing products is the low-end
Wintel server segment. Dell sees its near-term
opportunity in increasingly more capable and complex
servers (4-way, 8-way). Next is external network
attached storage (NAS).
2. Geographic expansion - Dell is already improving its
performance in the important European market where
its business is back on track after a difficult 2000.
Much opportunity exists in markets around the world.
Dell currently has 23% share in the 48% of worldwide
markets where it is best established, but only 6% in the
remaining 52%.
3. Exploit the Dell model - The company wants to exploit
its significant cost advantage to gain market share.
Market share gains will only be pursued if they are
profitable, so Dell is looking for somewhat stable
operating margins going forward (near 7%). Margins
and revenue growth at the low end of expectations
should only occur if the company sees irrationally low
pricing by competitors.
• Dell sees price cuts by Intel as especially advantageous.
Dell can quickly pass these price cuts on to its customers. A
large spike in Dell sales of systems including Intel’s P4
processor should occur towards the end of the year when the
Brookdale chipset (with SDRAM) is available.
• Dell is not currently considering AMD or Transmeta
processors. Dell prefers to remain single source (Intel) to
reduce complexity as long as Intel can keep prices declining.
• Dell is seeing pockets of relatively strong demand such as a
strong Y2k replacement cycle in the public sector in the US
and Canada (i.e., federal, state and local governments as
well as schools).
• Server sales are growing very quickly (better than notebooks
or desktops) and Dell’s price aggression is focused on this
segment. Server sales pull in significant service and storage
revenue as well, so they are particularly valuable.
• Dell’s focus on storage is to soak up all of the small/midsize
demand, not to play at the high end versus the likes of EMC
or HDS.
• Dell sees services as an enabler of hardware sales, especially
for higher-end systems. Services, in a sense, act as a
wrapper around hardware that is becoming thicker and
thicker. Dell intends to beef up its services offerings, but
does want to become a full-fledged services company like
EDS.
• Dell will not play in PDAs until the products become more
standardized and until volume sales are made through the
front doors of IT departments.
• The company is looking at selective acquisitions to get
certain segments/categories launched or enhanced with
appropriate scale.
• We are maintaining our Buy rating on Dell shares with a
price objective of $32 that is based on 35x our $0.90 EPS
estimate for fiscal 2003 (calendar 2002).