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To: Scumbria who wrote (73412)	5/22/2001 1:09:50 AM
From: Dave B	Respond to of 93625

Scumbria, Amazing statistic considering that there were no major OEM's delivering DDR in Q1. RDRAM sales must really suck bad. That apparently did not include the system sales from the OEMs -- just the standalone mobos. Read the article -- search for "DDR" and "pessimism" on the thread. Dave

To: Scumbria who wrote (73412)	5/22/2001 1:31:11 AM
From: Dave B	Respond to of 93625

Scumbria, I wasn't sure you'd bring the post back up, so I thought I'd give you a hand (and I was mistaken in that the figures apparently include sales to some tier-two and tier-three OEMs)... Message 15807549 Pentium 4 price cuts fuel RDRAM mobo demand surge By: Tony Smith Posted: 16/05/2001 at 13:37 GMT Intel's Pentium 4 price cuts have driven RDRAM mobo shipments well ahead of boards that use Rambus' rival memory technology, DDR SDRAM, Taiwanese motherboard makers have said. Since Intel hacked P4 prices right back last month, mobo makers are shipping on average 40 per cent more RDRAM boards than DDR units, according to a DigiTimes report. RDRAM may still be more expensive, but processor cuts have made a difference. Since the start of the year, RDRAM-based mobos have fallen by around 15 per cent to $150 a pop. Gigabyte said demand for RDRAM mobos has surged of late, especially from tier-two and tier-three PC vendors. It said it shipping around 12,000 DDR mobos a month, but shipments of RDRAM-based units has risen to over 20,000 per month. Asustek told DigiTimes it sold more than 30,000 RDRAM mobos in April. Again, increased demand from less well known PC makers has driven the sudden growth in sales. Both companies expect RDRAM-based mobo shipments to increase this month - good news not only for Rambus, but for Intel since it suggests its price-led move to kick-start P4 sales is working (though it may not be much of a consolation to shareholders - see Intel to miss Q2 targets by miles - analyst). Of course, with Brookdale, aka the i845 chipset, due to bring PC-133 SDRAM support to the P4, mobo makers have questioned just how long this surge in demand for RDRAM-based kit will last. A Q3 launch gives Rambus two months' grace, during which time it will hope to increase volumes and so lower the price of RIMMs. DigiTimes notes that Brookdale is expected to cost more than Intel's RDRAM chipset. If so, that too will favour RDRAM mobos. The cheaper price of P4s will also benefit rival DDR chipsets from the likes of VIA, Acer and SIS, but they are unlikely to appear until late in the quarter, we hear, which again will give Rambus more room to reduce the difference between RDRAM and DDR prices. ®

To: Scumbria who wrote (73412)	5/22/2001 1:36:55 AM
From: Dave B	Respond to of 93625

Scumbria, You may have missed this one as well (and on the last article, "pessimism" was the wrong word to search for)... nikkeibp.asiabiztech.com RDRAM Regains Ground from DDR Chips May 17, 2001 (TAIPEI) -- Rambus RDRAM is making a comeback after recently being threatened with extinction by rising star double data rate, or DDR, DRAMs. This is the result of the falling price of Intel Corp.'s Pentium 4 microprocessor. RDRAM gained its second wind in the race against the DDR chip following Intel's decision to lower its P4 price. In order to take the first mover advantage, Winbond Electronics Corp. has enlisted support from Japan's Toshiba Corp. to launch the pioneer samples of RDRAM chips during this quarter, ahead of other rival chipmakers in Taiwan. Local motherboard firms said they were considering raising production of the RDRAM version motherboards to 5 percent in the second quarter, 40 percent higher than the production of the pro-DDR motherboards would account for. But so far, not a single chipset maker in Taiwan plans to produce RDRAM chipsets. At the technology forum sponsored by Rambus Inc, Intel reiterated that RDRAM was the best mate of Pentium 4. Intel said that RDRAM is the best choice memory chip that can enable the Pentium 4 to show users how good it can perform. The price of the pro-P4 computer, excluding display, has dropped below US$1,000, and motherboard producers, which one after another scaled up the weight of RDRAM in their productions, are now signaling that buyers are looking for RDRAM chips again. As a result, the battle to restore RDRAM's position in the chip market is underway. Asustek Computer Inc., Taiwan's motherboard powerhouse, said it had decided to produce twice as many pro-RDRAM products in the second quarter as it did in the first quarter. Asustek admitted the decision to give greater weight to the production of RDRAM-supported motherboards instead of pro-DDR versions came in line with the price drop of pro-P4 computers, which has boosted RDRAM shipments. Powered by the motherboard and chipmaking powerhouses, the vice CEO of Rambus OEM marketing division, Steve Chen, revealed the RDRAM took up a thin slice of market share as it had long been used in the high-end servers and workstations, but the user-friendly 128Mb RDRAM was likely to account for more than 12 percent of market share by the year's end. So far, Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd., Elpida Memory Inc. and Toshiba are the three chipmaking firms around the world that have produced RDRAM chips. In Taiwan, Rambus has licensed Winbond and Powerchip Semiconductor Corp. for RDRAM chip productions. Rambus said that Winbond would probably be the first Taiwanese chipmaker to produce RDRAMs in tandem with Japan's Toshiba. Winbond is set to launch the RDRAM sample chips before long. However, unlike motherboard and chipmakers, the response from chipset companies has so far been tepid. Silicon Integrated Systems Corp. and Acer Laboratories Inc. remain cautious over whether or not to swim with the tide, even though they have been authorized by Rambus as early as 1998 and been licensed by Intel for Pentium 4 production. SiS eventually determined not to involve into RDRAM chipsets production, while ALI will make a final judgement depending on the market's further movement.

To: Scumbria who wrote (73412)	5/22/2001 1:53:36 AM
From: Dave B	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Scumbria, Here was the "pessimism" post... Message 15801685 Which contain the following quote: Motherboard distributors attributed the success of Pentium 4 motherboards over DDR ones to three factors. First, Intel dramatically reduced the price of the Pentium 4 at the end of April. Second, OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) have begun to add Pentium 4-based products to their next-generation product portfolios. Third, an international DRAM module maker has committed to begin mass production of Rambus modules. These changes now give Rambus architecture an opportunity to become the next-generation mainstream standard in the second half of 2001. Nevertheless, the window of opportunity for DDR motherboards may continue until the first or even second quarter of 2002 as consumer reception warms. However, motherboard distributors revealed that according to various testing reports, DDR architecture does not perform as well as expected and is unable to attract consumers to replace existing systems. In addition, considering how quickly the price of DDR modules has been falling and that it may continue to plunge to the level of SDRAM modules or even lower, consumers are hesitant about purchasing DDR products. A large number of stores have thus ceased ordering DDR motherboards. One motherboard wholesaler went as far as to suggest that DDR motherboards are now regarded with pessimism, and Pentium 4 motherboards, in contrast, are gaining an increasingly favorable reception. The source pointed out that it ordered around 200 to 250 DDR motherboards in February but has only sold 10 to 20 of them since then. Motherboard distributors also pointed out that DDR motherboards seem to be much more difficult to sell than Pentium 4 motherboards.