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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: valueminded who wrote (103909)	5/22/2001 10:57:21 AM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Chris, AG has reflated stocks but not the economy. Mike

To: valueminded who wrote (103909)	5/22/2001 11:47:52 AM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

u can't be serious ...

To: valueminded who wrote (103909)	5/23/2001 5:30:25 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Chris: I managed to miss your post. Just picked it up. My apologies. The Wall Street pimps can upgrade all they want, but they are doing so without a scrap of evidence to support their views. Inventories are NOT moving, yields are still increasing and prices continue to fall, so on what basis are these upgrades based? Bloody fairy tales from my perspective. I can't find a single niche within the whole electronics sector that isn't feeling massive pain. And I haven't read a single "upgrade" so far this year that provided anything other than hope and hype. I hate most of these pimps with a passion and for a reason. Very few of them have the guts to call the situation for what it is, which is an unfolding disaster. Yes, a few of them may well be simply uninformed, but the majority of them have a handle on just how nasty the tech situation is and are just lying through their teeth. as in the past, I will enjoy seeing many of them sacrificed by their firms as the mess becomes evident. I think Hickey in fact has described the situation much more accurately than anybody. He also backs up his views with facts and figures. This tech sector rally is based on a carefully crafted fairy tale and anybody who does even a semblance of digging can see this. Even my dog can see that there isn't a snowball's chance in hell of a second half rebound occurring. I disagree with you about the consumer. There are hiccups in all data streams, but virtually every piece of info. I get suggests a very significant scaling back by the consumer. I also think that as the lay-offs start to bite, consumer reticence to spend will grow. Many cite the real estate refinancing as a new source of consumer spending and it is a possibility, but personally I don't buy this. There is just too much unease out there and over the past few years, many consumer needs have been satiated. Yes, Greenspan's insane printing has leaked plenty of dough into the stock markets, but I simply don't see any evidence that this activity is having any serious impact on the economy. Many folks are forecasting based on the HOPE that his mad printing WILL goose consumer spending, but so far, the evidence suggests otherwise. If it had, surely the lay-off announcements would taper off a bit. I don't disagree with your point of view with respect to the Central Bankers of the world. It is indeed a fact that they recognize that they are now all crowded together in a leaky lifeboat and that the ancient mariner at the helm is Captain Greenboink. But it is well known that many foreign central banks would love to be among the first to ditch the U.S. currency but can't conjure up a painless way to do this without upsetting an already precarious global apple cart. That said, I think it is inevitable that sooner or later some of them will "jump ship" and the game will end very swiftly in a selling panic. The U.S. dollar isn't magic. It lives and breathes only based on confidence. The facts that point to an inevitable decline of the dollar are both numerous and growing daily. The fact that it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean that it won't. Best, Earlie