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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (47092)	5/22/2001 1:35:01 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Mike, That's a piece of demographic folklore that I don't hold in high regard. re: As far as 30 years, the cloud i see is the demographic one---the baby boomer generation pulling money out of the market to live on and perhaps to help our kids with day to day stuff. My impression is that the next generation is often in over their heads and will need some of our cash. e.g. I retired just prior to age 50 with: immediate, full pension; post retirement benefits; and about a year's salary as a bonus for leaving early. <vbg> At that time, I expected another 33 healthy years. Each 5 years that I continue living, I need to raise my life expectancy by another year or so. Point being: My retirement years will probably exceed my "working" years and possibly by about 10 years. I believe that the equity market represent my best probability of maintaining or improving my living standard. Thus I have no intention whatsoever of withdrawing my assets from the market any time soon, including the expected wave of boomer retirements. I doubt that I'm the only person in North America with this insight. ...unless, of course, it's completely wrong, harebrained or otherwise irrational. So rather than the mother of all bear markets starting in 2008 and lasting until the end of the universe, I would expect business as usual and an increasing number of retirees with multiple decades of remaining healthy life expectancy.

To: michael97123 who wrote (47092)	5/22/2001 1:56:29 PM
From: w0z	Respond to of 70976

As far as 30 years, the cloud i see is the demographic one---the baby boomer generation pulling money out of the market to live on and perhaps to help our kids with day to day stuff. Don't be too pessimistic about the younger generation! I funded my daughter's college education with annual stock contributions of $20K (10K from my wife and myself) to a UTMA account when she was in her early teens. When it came time to apply to colleges, her UTMA had accumulated enough value that she could completely pay for 4 years at any Ivy League school. I explained that it was "her" money and that she could choose to spend it all on an Ivy League school or go to a well-regarded state school (UNC Chapel Hill) for less than 1/5 the cost and have a nice nest egg when she graduated. She chose the latter! Now she's working in NYC and is saving for a down payment on a condo. I told her she is free to use her UTMA money (now in her name at age 22) for a down payment but she doesn't want to touch it. It is truly amazing how mature young people can be when you explain choices and consequences to them and when they realize it is their money they are spending!