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To: Horgad who wrote (104025)	5/22/2001 3:22:24 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 436258

Thanks -- the falloff in demand sound like it might dominate -- that was my thinking ...

To: Horgad who wrote (104025)	5/22/2001 8:24:09 PM
From: valueminded	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Actually the other use for Platinum palladium complex is going to be fuel cells. Although not yet a significant user, if the solve some of the basic problems related to PEM methanol fuel cells, the demand will take off. Its funny that even as expensive as platinum and palladium are, they are not the most expensive components in fuel cells. just an fyi.

To: Horgad who wrote (104025)	5/24/2001 1:18:16 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

>> Also keep in mind that platinum metals are recycled from catalytic converters as long as the price stays high enough << The price has been high enough for long enough that recycling is not a new thing. There's not going to be a huge increase in recycling efforts over and above what is already in place. >> So total number of vehicles owned has to go up to increase platinum metals demand. << Don't forget that size makes a difference. A little tin can Geo Metro needs a lot smaller cat than a giant SUV. Also, the tighter the emissions standards the more metal content is needed. The standards have been tightening over the last couple decades, and also more countries are starting to adopt stricter standards in the pursuit of clean air. >> People have to own more cars per person or number of people has to increase. << Well as capitalism spreads around the globe this is happening. More people can afford to buy a car, or a car with a larger size engine. >> Also consider increasing demand for platinum jewelry might continue to support platinum price while palladium price falls... << Japan is to platinum as India is to gold/silver, so you have to take into account the outlook there. China has taken a liking to platinum in recent years and has developed into a prominent market as well. Automobile manufacturers aren't thrilled with the higher prices of PGM's for catalytic convertors so they have intensified their efforts at designing catalysts that use much less or no PGM content at all. Palladium has taken prominence in catalysts over the recent years, but with prices skyrocketing you have some reverse-substitution reverting demand back in favor of platinum. Diesels need platinum for a catalyst. Petroleum refining is another use of platinum, but it is largely reyclable, so you need to have new refining come on stream to see a noticable difference. Although with the current energy shortages and gas mileage at 20 year lows it's a factor. Skyrocketing palladium prices are also beneficial to gold. Just 4 years ago palladium was $123/oz and much cheaper than gold so it was used for a lot of industrial and dental applications. Now that it is significantly more expensive than gold, gold is being substituted in some cases.