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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RR who wrote (37162)	5/22/2001 6:45:30 PM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

Hi RR, Well, you do have until Sept...... Me thinks there will be ample opportunity to take profits before then. My POV on the NAZ near term FWIW......... There's just too many things near term that concern me with the NAZ. Many of the square root guru's I follow see a down trend near term based on their TA. Some see more upside before it happens, but the consensus is down..... sooner or later. Some companies have current P/E's closer to when the NAZ was @ 5100, than they were when the NAZ was @ 1620............ there are many tech co's right now with historically high P/E's that have guided for lower earnings YOY & poor visibility going forward.......... that means there will be further inflating of their P/E's even if stock prices remain unchanged going forward.......... and these companies will return to bubble high P/E's if stock prices go up from here. I just cannot justify triple digit P/E's with earnings declining YOY and limited visibility going forward. No doubt some companies will do well & grow earnings......... it's the ones that won't that worry me most. If we get to NAZ 2350 - 2400, how much overhead resistance will will be met along the way? How much buying pressure will be needed to get to 2400....... let alone stay up there? Who will be buying near term to get NAZ 2500....... 2600?? VXN down only a fraction for two days in a row..... the VXN has fallen at least 5 straight days now..... from the mid 60's to 52.90 today...... IMO, low fifties is fairly extreme to me....... folks are getting too bullish. VIX is at 23.49 which is into a 6 month low...... it did turn up a bit today....... perhaps indicating things are a bit too bullish this far into the current run....... perhaps this is near a turn in the markets too. The Put/Call Ratio turned up today too...... closed up @ .60, which is on the bearish side (a put/call ratio of .50 is generally considered a contrarian bearish signal - a bullish ratio is when it's above .80)......... it was at a near term low of .47 Fri & again on Mon............. The NAZ is up for 6 straight days now....... how many months since that happened? The NAZ is now up more than 42% from it's lows just 7 weeks ago. In that time there was only one pull back greater than 5%.......... <(6.3%)>. IMVHAUO, sooner or later we will test the lows & return to less extreme valuations on many stocks......... I think the low has been put in & we will make a higher low......... eventually.......... but I seriously doubt this market goes straight up with no retest of the low (like NAZ 1950 +/-)...... I just don't see any real catalyst for significantly higher stock prices near term. Any thoughts folks?? As usual..... BWDIK? Glad you have good weather RR...... we're in the middle of a 5 day rain/drizzle spell & chilly temps (mid 50's)............ we do need the rain though. Ö¿Ö

To: RR who wrote (37162)	5/22/2001 7:01:56 PM
From: Sully-	Respond to of 65232

UH OH...... more bearish news for chip makers....... North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts April 2001 Book-to-Bill Ratio of 0.42 SAN JOSE, Calif., May 22, 2001 -- The North American-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $711.8 million in orders in April 2001 and a book-to-bill ratio of 0.42, according to the April 2001 Express Report published today by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI). A book-to-bill of 0.42 means that $42 worth of new orders were received for every $100 of product shipped for the month. The three-month average of worldwide bookings in April 2001 was $711.8 million. The bookings figure is 41 percent below the revised March 2001 level of $1.20 billion and 74 percent below the $2.72 billion in orders posted in April 2000. The three-month average of worldwide shipments in April 2001 was $1.68 billion. The shipments figure is 17 percent below the revised March 2001 level of $2.03 billion and is 15 percent below the April 2000 shipments level of $1.99 billion. "The severity and depth of this industry correction is unprecedented," said Stanley T. Myers, president and CEO of SEMI. "The book-to-bill ratio is the lowest that the industry has posted in the past decade and reflects the sharp order decline in April 2001. Cancellations of previously reported orders for semiconductor manufacturing equipment were a significant contributor to the monthly bookings decline as worldwide chip manufactures make adjustments to bring capacity and inventory in line with demand." The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving average bookings to three-month moving average shipments for the North American semiconductor equipment industry. Shipments and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars. semi.org!OpenDocument Ö¿Ö