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Technology Stocks : Alcatel (ALA) and France -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zbyslaw owczarczyk who wrote (3314)	5/23/2001 10:16:44 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 3891

Alcatel: North American demand down Alcatel's (ala) chief technical officer Martin De Prycker told a technology conference in Barcelona that its North American switching operations have slowed dramatically, according to a report on the Dow Jones news wires. Alcatel officials weren't immediately available for comment on the report from the Credit Suisse First Boston conference. De Prycker said that any turnaround in U.S. demand is at least two quarters away, the report said. Shares of Alcatel (ala) (fr:013000) were down $2.16 to $29.48. Shares were also likely under pressure from a report that Alcatel remains in talks to acquire all of Lucent Technologies (lu) and not just its fiber optics business. ftmarketwatch.com

To: zbyslaw owczarczyk who wrote (3314)	5/23/2001 10:31:36 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3891

ZO, demand nose dived in the US. ALA now needs the sales channel of LU to keep selling. So they buy LU, offer a sweet deal to its managers, get rid of lots of overlappings and sack a few thousands. That's my scenario. Oh I almost forgot: They have no alternative!!

To: zbyslaw owczarczyk who wrote (3314)	5/28/2001 11:00:25 PM
From: PaperChase	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3891

I saw this remark in the Reuter's news release about the merger speculation: ""It gives Lucent a clean slate to start over, and it gives Alcatel a big foot in the door in the U.S. marketplace," said independent telecommunications analyst Jeffrey Kagan." What a riot. LU is worse off than ALA but not by much. ALA has been insulated until now because its sales are mostly in Europe...but the telecom equipment market is now slowing overseas. ALA receivables (with the vendor financing) are at 180 days. ALA payables are being dragged and are at 90 days. Inventory is balloning and debt is increasing and the scamola with TSIX is painfully obvious. I expect billions in restructuring and one-time write-downs from ALA, independent of any transaction with LU. In fact, I anticipate the charges will exceed those of CSCO last quarter. IMHO, I think ALA is just another ticking time bomb like LU.