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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TREND1 who wrote (16368)	5/22/2001 9:39:33 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30051

Larry, do you think that AMAT will have sales even close to $45 B in the next three years? I think that we have another very sharp dip in the sector, and my experience has been that that last dip is the most murderous. I would not be surprised to see AMAT back into the mid $30', before we bottom. Actually, I am getting ever that closer to slip back into my bear suit, again, but I'll have to wait for the test of 2250 on the Naz first. Zeev

To: TREND1 who wrote (16368)	5/22/2001 9:55:07 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Larry: Re: "The stock market is looking at the BTB 6 to 9 months from now. THINK !!!" Yes, I did think back to the spring/summer of 1998 when the talk was the same and those prices were cut as the stocks did not find an ultimate bottom until the Autumn exactly when the fundamentals did and not six to nine months before. So I expect we revisit at least the lows in these stocks again absent a miraculous pick up in demand and capacity utilization. Issue is not whether we are at a bottom (how could this get much worse) but HOW LONG will we spend around that level and how much DAMAGE will be done to the balance sheets in the process. Also, the valuation metrics when compared to the bottom of 1998 do not compare to where the stocks are trading currently. Stocks have already discounted leg one plus of an upcycle which is merely a speculative promise at least six months out. A high risk bet IMO at these prices.

To: TREND1 who wrote (16368)	5/23/2001 12:52:14 AM
From: Suresh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Hi Larry, are you expecting the average booking to go to 2.4Bil from the current levels in the next 6 to 9 months ? I think the industry conditions are slightly different here from the previous bottoms. We can't have exponential rise in stock price when the revenue will be capped to less than the previous high we have seen. It is just my guess... and is as good as yours :) TA is supposed to reflect the fundamentals but these days every one is a TA and it is easy to paint the tape/chart. -Suresh