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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TREND1 who wrote (16369)	5/22/2001 9:53:58 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Larry, I know that very well, that is why I turned bearish on the sector when the BTB reached the outrageous level of 1.44 last April. All I am saying is that historically, if the cyclical bottom is very deep (like 98 and now) the sector bottom a little after the through in the BTB, only in rare cases when the cyclical through is not that deep (like 96 when the BTB throughed at .70) the sector bottoms a little earlier in anticipation. This cyclical bottom is deeper than anything we have seen in a long long time, thus coincidental or early bottoming of the sector with BTB, is less likely, IMHO.This coupled with the exuberance in the markets (very low P/C ratio and VXN), the lack of a good wash out in the late March early April lows, indicates to me, that is there is a good chance that this rally, like the earlier run we had in this bear market is a bear market rally. We'll see if the 2250 holds or not. Zeev