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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (47140)	5/23/2001 6:43:04 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Thoughts on your excellent charts: 1. bookings are now in the general range where they bottomed in the 1996 and 1998 downturns. 2. in those two previous downturns, bookings and billings both bottomed within a couple of months of each other, and at about the same level. If the same pattern holds, then billings have to go to 1.0-0.5B before they turn up, in the current downturn. 3. billings going from 3B to 0.5B, in the space of 6-8 months, with nobody anticipating it, means every company in the semi-equip industry is oversized (for current demand). 4. unless we get a sharp rebound in orders off a bottom that happens soon, the entire industry needs to downsize a lot more than they've already done. 5. current stock prices are anticipating a bottom in orders, and sharp rebound, in the next 2-3 months. 6. I will be watching very closely, to see whether I need to switch my shortterm trading from long back to short. If conditions for semi companies don't improve in the next 3 months, short will (agian) be the way to make money. 7. at current prices, I won't take any longterm positions, even if it looks like I've missed the bottom. Asset prices already have most of the next upturn priced into them.

To: Gottfried who wrote (47140)	5/25/2001 12:14:48 AM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, Following is the DW NYSE, OTC and Sector bell shaped curve bull percentage data for the Week ending Tuesday, 5/22/01. Note, there are no sectors below the 30%, oversold area and only 4 sectors below the 50 percentile. The market is very over bought. Over ten sectors are in the overbought area, over 68% including semi's. IMO, if AMAT follows the past 1996 and 1998 cycle AMAT will be flat for the next few months. What is interesting is how the institutionals have been holding up AMAT. The IBD's relative strength of AMAT is steadly moving up, now at 41 with an RS of institutional rank of 11 out of 197 with 1 being high. Also CSCO is moving up with a RS of 12 and a RS of the institutional rank moving up from 196 to 190. Naturally, the above is only my opinions and the data which I have reviewed from the Dorsey Wright site, IBD and SEMI sites. Readers are reminded the old saving, "caveat emptor (buyer/reader beware)." Paul Percent 5/22/01 10week 79.1 30week 49.2 bpaero 60 bpasia bpauto 66 bpbank 76 bpbiom 68 bpbuil 66 bpbusi 56 bpchem 62 BPCOMP 50 bpdrug 70 bpelec 60 bpeuro bpeuti 70 bpfina 62 bpfood 66 bpfore 64 bpgame 75 bpguti 70 bpheal 56 bphous 60 bpinet 32 bpinsu 64 bplati 43 bpleis 60 bpmach 54 bpmedi 58 bpmeta 74 bpnyse 62.4 bpoil 76 bpoils 74 bpopti 68 bpotc 56.399 bpprec 82 bpprot 68 bpreal 69 bprest 68 bpreta 64 bpsavi 80 BPSEMI 77 bpsoft 54 bpstee 48 BPTELE 44 bptext 56 bptran 62 bpwall 60 bpwast 60 HLnyse 92.9 HLotc 82.8 twotc 74 Percent 5/22/01 bpeuro bpasia HLnyse 92.9 HLotc 82.8 bpprec 82 bpsavi 80 10week 79.1 BPSEMI 77 bpoil 76 bpbank 76 bpgame 75 twotc 74 bpoils 74 bpmeta 74 bpguti 70 bpeuti 70 bpdrug 70 bpreal 69 bprest 68 bpprot 68 bpopti 68 bpbiom 68 bpfood 66 bpbuil 66 bpauto 66 bpreta 64 bpinsu 64 bpfore 64 bpnyse 62.4 bptran 62 bpfina 62 bpchem 62 bpwast 60 bpwall 60 bpleis 60 bphous 60 bpelec 60 bpaero 60 bpmedi 58 bpotc 56.399 bptext 56 bpheal 56 bpbusi 56 bpsoft 54 bpmach 54 BPCOMP 50 30week 49.2 bpstee 48 BPTELE 44 bplati 43 bpinet 32