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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roebear who wrote (91103)	5/23/2001 8:46:14 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Roebear re: API's... I have begun to put on a few Nat Gas E&P shorts (POG, KWK etc) - just initial partial positons that I will gladly & hopefully get to add to on any further strength. I lean toward shorting OSX stocks into further strength - "if" we continue the builds in oil & gas - if we flatten the API trend - then I'm neutral on the OSX with a bearish lean. The only way I'm long the OSX other than a couple of short-term trades is if the API's fall below 300-305 M boe and do it quickly. For the OSX to move up to any "substantial" degree - we need some significant draws and need them quick. The OSX literally dropped of a cliff in the first week of June in 1998 after a great May 1998 Rally. The API's were "THE" catalyst to that exodus & they are a glaring "deja vu all over again-esque" warning indicator here presently imo. Yes; the earnings visibility for the next 3 qtrs is there for new highs & perhaps OSX 155-165. But, we've visited OSX 94-105 twice in the last few months & once the cyclical correction begins that 94-105 level will not hold... thus; without a strong reversal in the API & AGA's - no compelling risk vs reward scenario to be long to any degree; or at least not to have stops sitting up tight behind this bounce back to resistance of 135ish. The API's point to $18-$22 Oil here as a lead indicators given the trendline of the build. Anyone who's ever fought the API's, or ignored their negative trend late cycle - has lost. I like respecting history & learning from it; not ignoring it & not repeating it's mistakes... what more needs to be said ? re: Gold Germany announced 2 economic reports showing strong inflationary pressure & Germany is very "gold-aware" fwiw... Weimar Republic & all (VBG)... Gold allways moves near the end of an up Oil cycle & the reflation of the economy via the money supply pump creates about as positive environment for gold as one could want. The short/derivative situation remains as a tremendous upside catalyst that could take gold to levels not anticipated by even the bulls... but, that's just the icing. tic-toc ~ Give me another 6% pullback today in the golds today... please. fwiw: 25% long gold/silver; 15% short E&P's, 7.5% short misc broad market stocks & 52.5% Cash. I like being 50% + cash here again and having allready locked in both the Oilpatch & Gold moves ... lots of opps brewing here; both long & short; in & out of the 'patch.